US Scrap Trends Outlook: May
North American ferrous scrap prices are due a further downward correction in May following drops incurred on cut grades and shredded scrap in April; primes trended sideways over the period
Outlook for steel scrap price in May
The bearish sentiment pushed the Trend Indicator into negative territory for May. The Outlook’s prediction model suggests that steel scrap prices have the potential to fall even further in May.
Well over half of respondents to the survey expect steel scrap prices to trend lower, while 29% forecast that prices would remain sideways. Half of respondents said weaker demand would be the main driver, while 20% pointed to unchanged market conditions.
Demand drivers for steel scrap prices
Shredded scrap prices are expected to fall the most sharply amid strong supply flows. The outlook for prime grades remains unclear, with demand for No1 busheling reportedly still strong in some regions.
The overall trend consensus edged higher — to 59% — compared with 57% in April, suggesting that confidence in the market’s direction has improved. The three-month Indicator was in bearish territory, and the six-month Indicator was also negative. Learn more.
Make sense of the US steel scrap market and track the critical indicators impacting steel scrap price movements in our May outlook.