The USDA attaché boosts Argentina’s wheat and corn production estimates

The boost to the outlook is due to higher than expected yields and larger planted areas, compared to the drought-affected 2022/23 year

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s attaché in Argentina has increased its outlook for the country’s wheat and corn production in the 2023/24 marketing year, while barley output projections were unchanged.  

The primary reason for the gain in the wheat projection is that yields were higher in the final phase of than harvest than expected earlier, according to the report.

Wheat production in the South American country is expected to total 15.4 million tonnes in 2023/24, up 400,000 tonnes from the 15 million tonnes expected in the most recent edition of the USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report (Wasde) that was issued on January 12.

Argentina’s farmers are expected to harvest 12 million tonnes of wheat in 2022/23, which is down from the 12.55 million tonnes estimated in the Wasde report.

The USDA’s Buenos Aries office also increased its 2023/24 export estimates, revising the total volume for 2023/24 to 10.2 million tonnes, 200,000 tonnes higher than was projected in the Wasde.

Exports are expected to be 179% higher than the 3.662 million tonnes seen in 2022/23 when drought slashed output.  

The average wheat yield for 2023/24 is expected to come in at 2.8 tonnes per hectare, up from the Wasde forecast of 2.7273 tonnes per hectare, and the yield for 2022/23 is seen coming in at 2.1858 tonnes per hectare, down from an estimated 2.2828 tonnes per hectar.

Corn

USDA’s Buenos Aires office projects the country will produce 57 million tonnes of corn in 2023/24, which is 2 million tonnes higher than projected in the Wasde, and substantially higher than the 35 million tonnes output that the office projected for 2022/23. 

The report noted that the primary reason for the increase in the projection was the larger planted area than earlier expected, and added that “crop conditions to date are very good with beneficial weather forecast in the months to come.”

Argentina is expected to export 41 million tonnes of corn in 2023/24, which is identical to what was projected in the most recent Wasde.  

Exports in 2022/23 are expected to total 23.4 million tonnes, which is up 400,000 tonnes from the Wasde estimate. 

Barley

Argentina’s 2023/24 barley production is expected to total 5 million tonnes, unchanged from the January Wasde, while 2022/23 output is projected at 4.5 million tonnes, down 100,000 tonnes from the same report.

Barley exports are expected to total 3.2 million tonnes in 2023/24, unchanged from the Wasde estimate, while the 2022/23 projection was steady at 2.857 million tonnes.

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