The USDA increased its forecast for record US production and higher ending stocks for 2024/25, both above market expectations, and raised its estimates for global ending stocks, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed on Monday August 12. Front-month futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell by 20 cents per bushel (bu) ten minutes after the report’s release, trading at $10.60 per bu.
The USDA raised its US soybean 2024/25 crop output estimates to 4.6 billion bu (124.9 million tonnes), up by 154 million bu (4.2 million tonnes) from 4.43 billion bu (120.7 million tonnes) in last month’s WASDE, citing a higher harvested area and yield.
The latest forecast was also above the average projection of 4.46 billion bu (121 million tonnes) shown by a Fastmarkets poll with traders and analysts.
The USDA’s soybean output estimate for 2024/25 surpasses the record 4.46 billion bu production from 2021.
The harvested area is forecast at 86.3 million acres, up by 1 million acres from July’s estimate of 85.3 million acres.
The soybean yield was forecast at a record 53.2 bu per acre, up by 1.2 bu per acre from last month’s WASDE, while the average estimate from market participants was 52.3 bu per acre.
US soybean exports were pegged at 50.35 million tonnes, up by 680,000 tonnes from last month’s forecast of 49.67 million tonnes, with the USDA citing higher supply and unchanged crush levels.
US ending stocks were forecast at 560 million bu (15.25 million tonnes) in August’s report, up by 125 million bu (3.4 million tonnes) from the July WASDE’s 435 million bu (11.85 million tonnes) and above the market projection of 471 million bu (12.8 million tonnes).
Soybean production estimates
Global soybean production estimates were increased by 6.9 million tonnes to 428.7 million tonnes from 421.85 million tonnes in the July WASDE on higher production expected for the US, Ukraine, Russia, India and Benin.
The forecast for global ending stocks was increased by 6.5 million tonnes to 134.3 million tonnes from 127.76 million tonnes in the July WASDE, above the average market projection of 128 million tonnes, with the USDA citing higher stocks for China, the US and Argentina, partly offset by lower stocks for Brazil.
Brazilian ending stocks were estimated at 35.75 million tonnes in the August WASDE, up from last month’s forecast of 28.75 million tonnes, while Chinese ending stocks were pegged at 45.68 million tonnes, up from 45.36 million tonnes in the previous report.
Forecasts for Brazil’s and Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean crop output were unchanged at 169 million tonnes and 51 million tonnes respectively.
Crop estimates for 2023/24
US exports in the 2023/24 crop year were pegged at 46.27 million tonnes, unchanged from the July forecast.
The USDA kept its forecast for Brazil’s soybean output unchanged at 153 million tonnes, while the average market estimate was 152 million tonnes.
Brazilian soybean export estimates were raised by 2 million tonnes in the August WASDE to 105 million tonnes, with the USDA citing a strong shipment pace through July.
The Argentine soybean crop projection was reduced to 49 million tonnes from 49.5 million tonnes in the July WASDE, while market participants estimated it would be increased to 50 million tonnes.
China’s soybean imports for 2023/24 were revised up once again by 3.5 million tonnes to 111.5 million tonnes from 108 million tonnes in the July WASDE, based on higher shipments by exporters.
