What is the future of virgin fiber in China?

We look at some of the consequences following China's ban on recovered fiber imports

Over the last few years, the global pulp market has become more volatile. Some of its end-use sectors struggled during the pandemic and the shift to digital in 2020, along with supply-side disruptions related to global logistics and delays in new capacity expansions, tightened the market in 2021.

During this time, there have been many changes to the pulp industry for China. The most dramatic change in overall fiber furnish shares is the swing away from recovered paper to virgin pulp. The country’s ban on recovered fiber imports has created a significant fiber shortage. Several large and mid-sized containerboard companies are evaluating their alternatives, and concerns over finding enough fiber furnish is increasing as companies continue to start up additional new paper capacity.

A new wave of investment in Chinese virgin pulp

This has triggered a wave of large-scale investments in the virgin pulp sector. The market pulp price rally that began in 2021 also aroused growing interest in integrated pulp projects. Many Chinese paper companies have unveiled aggressive expansion plans for new virgin pulp capacity in China, spurred on by a more favorable investment environment and supporting policies from provincial governments.

Our tracking of expansion plans shows more than 90 pulp lines with about 40 million tonnes of potential new capacity announced in the past four years.

The dynamics of the Chinese virgin fiber markets

These developments have sparked a number of questions. What has happened to Chinese pulp consumption and what might happen in the future? What challenges and implications do these developments and the changes in China’s policy pose to the pulp industry? How will the ambitious pulp expansion plans impact the supply/demand balance in the market?

To better understand the dynamics of the Chinese pulp industry, and to explore the influences and opportunities for Chinese paper producers and pulp suppliers, Fastmarkets RISI has recently released a new study, Dynamics in Chinese Virgin Fiber Markets.

The report, which is available now, provides an overview of changes in Chinese virgin pulp end uses and a five-year outlook for the industry. It places particular focus on the influence of the recycled paper imports ban on virgin fiber. It links the forecast for paper and board production to fiber demand and pulp production by starting with recent developments and the outlook for virgin fiber furnish in China.

The report presents details of new projects within China, including analysis of wood and nonwood fiber availability in the country. In addition, because government policy clearly has a central role in determining the course of development of the industry, it explores recent policy developments.

If you are interested in learning more about this upcoming study, please feel free to request more information.

What to read next
Manganese ore inventories at the main Chinese ports of Tianjin and Qinzhou were originally published at 357 million-370 million tonnes. This has been corrected to 3.57 million-3.70 million tonnes. Chrome ore inventories at the main ports of Tianjin, Qinzhou, Lianyungang and Shanghai were originally published at 2.95 million tonnes. This has been corrected to 2.69 […]
The top end of the price was incorrectly published due to a typographical error. The price was initially published as 16,000-168,000 yuan per tonne. This has been corrected to 16,000-16,800 yuan per tonne. Fastmarkets’ pricing database has been updated to reflect this change.  The affected price is as follows:MB-GER-0004 Germanium 99.999% Ge min, in-whs China, […]
The rationale has been updated to include the following information: Owing to UK public holidays on April 18 & April 21, the cobalt hydroxide cif China price will next be published on April 22. This is in accordance with Fastmarkets’ pricing schedule. The affected price is as follows: MB-CO-0020 Cobalt hydroxide min 30% Co, cif China, […]
Fastmarkets proposes to continue to publish all delivered prices net of tariffs. The specifics of the global pulp markets likely to be most affected are detailed below. Asia Fastmarkets’ prices for pulp imports into China are on a CIF basis. Consequently, Fastmarkets will continue to assess these prices net of tariffs. To date, US pulp […]
The publication of Fastmarkets’ MB-CHO-0003 chrome ore South Africa UG2/MG concentrates index, cif China on Tuesday April 15 was delayed because of a technical issue. Fastmarkets’ pricing database has been updated. The following price was affected: MB-CHO-0003 Chrome ore South Africa UG2/MG concentrates index, cif China, $/tonne The price is a part of the Fastmarkets ores […]
Fastmarkets invited feedback from the industry on the pricing methodology for iron ore indices, via an open consultation process between March 10 to April 7 2025.This consultation was done as part of our published annual methodology review process. A full list of all the prices covered can be found in the original consultation. Fastmarkets received feedback […]