What’s in store for EV demand in 2024 and beyond?

Phoebe O'Hara, battery raw material analyst at Fastmarkets, shares her analysis on electric vehicle (EV) demand in 2023 and some insights for 2024 and beyond

Fastmarkets has presented some analysis on electric vehicle (EV) demand in 2023 alongside our new Q124 outlook for 2024 and beyond. We showcase how this is influencing our predictions on how battery demand will play out over the near- and long-term.

Our three key takeaways are summarized below:

1. EV sales will remain strong but with a slower growth rate

We forecast global EV sales growth to increase by 36% year-on-year in 2024, compared to an estimated 62% in 2023. While demand will remain strong, it will be slower due to sluggishness in China and high interest rates in Europe and the US.

2. PHEVs and HEVs will increase in popularity, while BEVs struggle

Plug-in (PHEV) and hybrid (HEV) EV sales growth is rising at a stronger rate in the US and China compared to battery EVs (BEV).

We believe that this trend will continue this year, particularly in China, where EV adoption in Tier 1 is saturated, and more rural areas with less access to EV charging points are now taking on EV adoption. This will have an implication on battery and metal demand given the smaller battery packs in PHEVs.

3. EV sales could slow on a Trump victory

We have modeled what a potential Trump presidential election scenario could do to US EV sales and lithium demand. We’re expecting that sales growth would slow, resulting in sales being 5% lower by 2034, and as a result, US lithium demand 7% lower by 2034.

All of these updates can be found in our upcoming Q124 lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and copper long-term forecasts.

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