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Key takeaways:
By 1pm US Eastern time, the Chicago soft red winter (SRW) March futures contract on the Chicago Board of Trade decreased by 5 cents per bushel to $5.35 per bu, while the May contract slipped by 5 cents per bu to $5.42 per bu.
The Kansas hard red winter (HRW) March futures contract declined by 4 cents per bu to $5.30 per bu and the May contract fell by 4 cents per bu to $5.41 per bu.
The Minneapolis hard red spring March futures contract increased by 2 cents per bu to $5.75 per bu, while the May 2026 contract rose by 1 cent per bu to $5.84 per bu.The French milling wheat contract on Euronext declined, with March falling by €0.50 per tonne to settle at €189.25 ($220.36) per tonne at 6:30pm Central European time, while the May contract slipped by €0.50 per tonne to €192.25 per tonne.
In the cash market, private buyers in the Philippines were reportedly active, purchasing feed wheat. Although not officially confirmed, market sources indicated that between one and five cargoes were traded for January–April shipment. Price ideas varied, with some sources citing levels around $244–249 per tonne FOB equivalent, depending on the loading period. Meanwhile, other source suggested March-loading Australian Standard White (ASW1) traded at approximately $242 per tonne FOB equivalent.
At the same time, in Australia trade sources said that the export values firmed, following a strengthening of the country’s currency in the past few days, with current ideas for Australian premium white (APW) wheat for February loading indicated at $258-260 per tonne FOB Western ports/New South Wales ports.
In the Black Sea market, selling ideas for Russian 12.5% wheat were reported in the range of $229–233 per tonne FOB Novorossiysk–Taman–Tuapse (NTT) for January loading. Additionally, an offer idea for December loading FOB Tuapse was still heard at $227 per tonne. A 12.5% wheat trade was heard done for February at $231 per tonne FOB NTT.
The Russian government has pushed down the wheat export tax for December 10-16 period by 8.90 rubles per tonne to zero for the upcoming period for the first time since August 15. The Moscow Exchange wheat base price was marginally lower, falling by $1.20 per tonne to $226.10 per tonne FOB Black Sea, compared with $226.40 per tonne the week before.
In Ukraine, offers for 11.5% wheat were reported slightly lower at $229-232 per tonne FOB Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC) for December-January loading, with bids steady at $225-226.50 per tonne FOB POC for the months.
Trade sources expect the tradable level for Ukrainian 11.5% wheat to be around $227–228 per tonne, as it is currently losing competitiveness against Russian 12.5%. “Not easy to market Ukrainian 11.5% when Russian 12.5% is [at the] same price level,” a broker said.
Selling ideas into Syria were heard at $249 per tonne CIF for December loading, along with offers into Egypt at $250 per tonne.
Selling ideas for Ukrainian feed wheat were heard for December-January loading at $225 per tonne FOB POC, with bids at $215 per tonne FOB POC for the same month.
In the EU Black Sea region, FOB Constanta 12.5% wheat was offered at $235-236 per tonne for January-February loading, but no bids were reported against it.
Offers for 11.5% wheat on an FOB Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB) basis were also stable around $235 per tonne for December-January.
European wheat premiums were again unchanged with the market quiet.
French 11% protein wheat was assessed at a €4.50 per tonne premium to the March contract for January loading, unchanged from the previous day.
Polish and Baltic FOB 12.5% wheat cargo premiums were both unchanged at €12 and €13 per tonne respectively over the March Euronext wheat contract for January loading dates.
The German 12.5% FOB wheat APM for January loading was assessed at €13.00 per tonne above the March Euronext contract, with no indications received to disprove the previous assessment.
The German 11.5% FOB wheat APM for January loading was assessed at €12.00 per tonne above the March Euronext contract, with no indications received to disprove the previous assessment.
The 11% FOB US Gulf HRW premiums were steady, with January at $1.20 per bu over the March Kansas HRW futures contract and February at $1.15 per bu over the March contract.The 10.5% FOB US Gulf SRW front-month premiums were flat, with January at $1.10 per bu over the March Chicago SRW futures and February at $1.05 per bu over the March contract.The 10% FOB Pacific Northwest soft white wheat market edged lower, with both January and February declining by $1 per tonne to $238 per tonne.
Canada Western red spring 13.5% FOB Vancouver front-month premiums were stable, with January at $1.25 per bu over the March CBOT futures contract and February at $1.15 per bu over the March contract.Canadian durum prices were unchanged, with 14.5% wheat FOB Vancouver cargoes at $270 per tonne, while FOB St Lawrence cargoes were at $285 per tonne.In Argentina, January offers were reported at $218 per tonne, up by $6 per tonne from a day earlier, and bids increased by $6 per tonne to $213 per tonne.
The wheat market remains in flux as production has shifted away from a stable, transparent US hub to more regional production centers, notably the Black Sea. Understand the forces shaping the global wheat market.