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Key takeaways:
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), adopted during the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in October 2025, marks a pivotal shift in the country’s economic trajectory.
This blueprint prioritizes “high-quality development”, technological self-reliance, and green transformation to drive sustainable growth. A clear departure from the real estate-driven model of the past, the plan emphasizes advanced manufacturing, renewable energy development, and the promotion of electric vehicles (EVs) as pillars of economic progress. This transformation will not only shape China’s industrial landscape but will also significantly affect the demand for base metals.
As China moves toward achieving its dual-carbon goals – carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 – the demand for base metals that enable green technologies and high-tech innovations is set to rise. The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes resource security, with a strategic focus on domestic mineral exploration and scaling up metal recycling to mitigate reliance on imports and address potential supply shortages.
While full details will be finalized in early 2026, initial market reactions to the Plan have been positive, with domestic equities and base metals such as LME copper and aluminium reflecting optimism. Below, we analyze how China’s policy pivot toward green technology and quality growth may shape demand trends for major base metals over the coming decade.
Copper’s role in China’s green transition is critical, serving as the backbone of electrification, renewable energy, and technological infrastructure. The 15th Five-Year Plan places heavy emphasis on clean energy, digital infrastructure, and EV expansion, all of which will drive copper demand significantly.
China’s investment in grid modernization is a key example of this growth. Over the past four years, China has committed over $300 billion to upgrade its electrical grid, with another $80-100 billion earmarked for 2025 alone. The push for smart grids and integration with renewable energy systems (such as wind and solar) will require extensive copper use in cables, transformers, and wiring. In addition, the AI-driven infrastructure required for data processing and AI training systems also necessitates vast amounts of copper, reinforcing the metal’s central role in China’s high-tech future.
Electrified transport is another game-changer for copper. As the world’s largest EV market, China’s shift toward electric vehicles requires substantial amounts of copper for battery components, motors, wiring, and charging infrastructure. Copper is integral in EV production, with each electric car using up to four times more copper than a traditional internal combustion vehicle. The Plan’s ambition to expand EVs aligns directly with copper’s growing role in the automotive sector. Similarly, renewable energy deployments, such as wind turbines and solar farms, rely heavily on copper for inverters, wiring, and grid connections.
Aluminium is also poised for growth under China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, largely driven by its lightweight and energy-efficient properties. The shift toward electric vehicles, high-speed rail, and solar panel installations will significantly increase aluminium demand. For instance, EV lightweighting – reducing vehicle weight to improve efficiency – requires increased use of aluminium alloys in battery casings, chassis, and body panels.
However, environmental policies impose strict limits on primary aluminium production in China. Since 2017, the government has enforced a cap of 45 million tonnes per year on primary aluminium capacity to address overcapacity issues and reduce carbon emissions. The 15th Five-Year Plan extends this policy with a continued focus on “dual control,” which limits both production capacity and energy consumption. Consequently, any rise in aluminium demand must be met through cleaner methods, such as recycled aluminium (secondary production) and energy efficiency improvements, rather than expanding traditional smelting capacity.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan, China set a target to raise the share of recycled nonferrous metals to 24% of total supply by 2025. It remains to be seen whether a more specific recycling target will be set in the 15th Five-Year Plan.
Nickel demand is intimately tied to both the EV boom and the stainless steel sector, and China’s plans create a mixed outlook for this metal. As China’s push for EV expansion under the 15th Five-Year Plan intensifies, demand for nickel in batteries will naturally rise. However, the rise of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which contain no nickel, is limiting growth potential. However, the Plan’s emphasis on indigenous innovation and cost-effective tech might further entrench LFP as a dominant platform for mass-market EVs. Thus, nickel’s role in China’s green transition is somewhat constrained by evolving technology choices in energy storage.
Furthermore, stainless steel, traditionally the largest driver of nickel demand in China, may see slower growth as China transitions away from a construction-fueled economy toward higher-value manufacturing. The 15th Five-Year Plan’s emphasis on “high-quality development” signals a shift toward advanced manufacturing and high-tech industries, which could reduce demand for stainless steel in traditional sectors like construction and infrastructure. As a result, nickel’s demand from the stainless steel sector may grow at a slower pace compared with previous decades.
On the supply side, Indonesia’s nickel production continues to drive a global oversupply, putting downward pressure on prices. This overcapacity is expected to persist until 2027-2028, further moderating nickel’s price trajectory. Despite growing EV demand, nickel’s growth potential in China is tempered by both demand and supply factors.
Tin’s future looks promising owing to its role in electronics and green technologies. Tin is essential in soldering for electronic devices, including smartphones, semiconductors, and consumer electronics. As China continues its push toward technological self-reliance and advances in high-tech industries under the 15th Five-Year Plan, demand for tin in electronics manufacturing is expected to grow. The Plan’s focus on semiconductor manufacturing and AI technology will increase the need for tin solder in advanced circuits and microelectronics.
Tin is also emerging as a key material for renewable energy technologies, especially in solar energy. Tin is used in solar panel soldering and is essential for wind turbine electronics. Additionally, tin-based perovskite solar cells, a next-gen technology under research, could further boost tin demand if successfully commercialized. Given China’s leadership in solar panel production and EV manufacturing, tin’s role as a critical enabler of clean technologies makes it a metal to watch. The 15th Five-Year Plan’s focus on “breakthroughs in new materials” will likely propel innovation in tin applications, further driving demand.
Lead and zinc are more traditional base metals whose fortunes in China are linked to mature industries, yet they too will be touched by the green and high-quality development push. Both metals have seen steady, if unspectacular, demand in recent years and this trend will likely continue with some new wrinkles.
Lead is primarily used in lead-acid batteries, which continue to be essential for vehicle start-ups and energy storage systems. As China’s infrastructure and power grid continue to expand, lead demand will remain stable, though EV adoption could weaken lead’s role in the automotive sector post-2030.
Zinc, meanwhile, is heavily tied to the construction and infrastructure domain through its main use: galvanizing steel to protect against corrosion. The 15th Five-Year Plan does call for “continued urbanization and infrastructure development”, including modernization of transport networks and new energy infrastructure. These will still require galvanized steel. Moreover, any stimulus to prop up the construction sector (to ensure social stability) could give a short-term boost to zinc demand.
Lead and zinc demand in China will be stable with slight growth, but their role in the headline green transition is relatively modest. Both metals will remain integral to “ensuring durable and efficient infrastructure and energy systems,” even if they don’t experience the high-growth supercycles of battery metals. As the 15th Five-Year Plan unfolds, any policy measures to stimulate construction (or, conversely, stricter environmental rules on smelting) will directly affect global zinc-lead balances and prices.
China’s pursuit of a greener, more innovative economy marks a significant shift in the demand composition for base metals. As the country transitions to a green, high-tech growth model, quality and sustainability will take precedence over sheer volume.
Metals such as copper and aluminium will serve as the backbone of China’s energy transition, while tin will benefit from rising demand in electronics and green technologies. Nickel will continue to play a vital but narrower role, primarily driven by EV battery demand, while lead and zinc will remain key to infrastructure and energy storage, though their growth prospects may be more modest.
For global markets, China’s policies will be a dominant influence – boosting certain metals, capping others, and generally pushing the industry toward greener practices.
As the 15th Five-Year Plan period unfolds, the “metal intensity” of China’s growth is shifting from construction toward electrification and technology. Investors and stakeholders in the metals space will be closely watching China’s next moves, as an early indicator of demand trends in the coming green decade.
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