Soybean, corn, wheat prices fall on plummeting futures

Wheat market news

Wheat futures in Chicago plummeted over the week, while in cash markets, Tunisia’s state grains agency, the Office des Céréales (ODC), bought 75,000 tonnes of soft wheat at $268.16 per tonne CFR, awarding the full volume to Bunge on an all-or-nothing basis. Bunge’s offer was among the lowest submitted, ahead of competing bids largely ranging $269-273 per tonne CFR.

The purchase covers three 25,000-tonne cargoes for shipment between July 1 and August 15. Traders said the result reflected strong exporter competition despite softer futures and relatively steady freight rates. Optional origin was again accepted, providing suppliers with sourcing flexibility.

Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment for wheat 10.5% FOB Australia W APW decreased by $3 per tonne week on week to $282 per tonne for July loading on Thursday June 4, while wheat 9.5% FOB Australia W ASW was down by $2 per tonne and assessed at $275 per tonne.

In the Black Sea region, Russian wheat fell slightly due to a slowly weakening ruble, while Ukrainian wheat faced softer pricing pressure from global futures and improved local weather conditions.

Fastmarkets’ assessment for wheat 12.5% FOB Russia decreased by $3 per tonne week on week to $241.50 per tonne for July shipment on Thursday, while wheat 11.5% FOB Russia was down by $2 per tonne to $237 per tonne.

The price assessment for wheat 11.5% FOB Ukraine declined by $2 per tonne week on week to $235 per tonne for June loading on Thursday.

Feed wheat FOB Ukraine prices were $1 per tonne lower week on week and assessed at $229 per tonne Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC) on Thursday.

In the EU Black Sea region, Fastmarkets’ assessment for wheat 11.5% FOB CVB moved down by $4.25 per tonne week on week to $238 per tonne on Thursday for loading in July, while wheat 12.5% FOB Constanta/Varna/Burgas was $240.25 per tonne, down by $4.50 per tonne, and feed wheat FOB Constanta/Varna/Burgas was $228.75 per tonne, down by $9 per tonne.

European wheat export markets moved lower over the past week, following declines in Matif futures in recent sessions, which exerted downward pressure on FOB values across key northern European origins.

Export premiums over futures weakened across most origins, particularly in France and the Baltic region, reflecting softer underlying futures and limited buying interest.

The pullback in premiums indicates increased competition among sellers, while buyers remained largely cautious in response to the downward price trend.

Market activity was mixed during the week. Periods of inquiry were reported at lower price levels, but follow-through on trades was inconsistent, resulting in subdued liquidity. Bid-offer spreads remained relatively wide in some areas as participants adjusted indications in line with futures movements.

Overall, price direction in the physical market continued to be guided by developments on Matif, with limited sustained demand emerging despite periodic buying interest.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for wheat 11% FOB France was $229.75 per tonne for July loading on June 4, down by $11.25 per tonne week on week.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for wheat 12.5% FOB Baltic was $242.50 per tonne for July loading on June 4, down by $10 per tonne from the previous week.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for wheat 12.5% FOB Poland was $245.50 per tonne on June 4, down by $7 per tonne week on week.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for wheat 12.5% FOB Germany was $246 per tonne on June 4, down by $6.50 per tonne over the same period.

Premiums for 11% FOB US Gulf HRW wheat were unchanged, with July at $1.40 per bushel over the July Kansas HRW futures contract and August at $1.30 per bu over the September contract.

Premiums for 10.5% FOB US Gulf SRW wheat were also unchanged, with July at 70 cents per bu over the July Chicago SRW futures contract and July at 60 cents per bu over the September contract.

The 10% FOB Pacific Northwest soft white wheat market strengthened, with July at $247 per tonne and August at $240 per tonne.

Premiums for Canadian western red spring 13.5% FOB Vancouver front-month wheat were unchanged, with July at 93 cents per bu over the July Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) futures and August at 93 cents per bu over the September MGEX futures.

Canadian durum prices were lower, with 14.5% cargoes at $270 per tonne FOB Vancouver and $290 per tonne FOB St Lawrence.

Corn prices

Corn cash premiums rose during the week, while outright prices dropped across regions, reflecting the sharp decline in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures. The July corn contract fell by 5.15%, or 23 cents per bushel, since last Friday to 4.24 cents per bu on Thursday June 4.

Favorable weather conditions for US crops were the main factor behind the losses, as the recent hot and dry weather is beneficial for corn planting progress in the Corn Belt. Over the next five days, rain is forecast for the corn-growing region, which is important for the development of the planted areas.

With alternating weeks of more and less rainfall, as the rains actually occur, the crop’s development should proceed without major problems, according to Rural Clima’s weather report.  

The volatile crude oil prices have also pressured corn futures, as peace negotiations between Iran and the United States appear to progress, but at the same time seem hampered by Israeli attacks.

In the physical markets, US premiums rose by 5 cents per bu on the US Gulf compared with May 29, with the July basis assessed on Thursday June 4 at 100 cents per bu, while in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the July basis was unchanged at 128 cents per bu over July CME futures.

Outright prices, meanwhile, fell by about $8.5 per tonne week on week to $206.50 per tonne in the US Gulf and by 10.5 to $217.50 per tonne in the PNW in the week from May 29 to June 4.

In South America, the Corn FOB Argentina Premium for July rose by 16 cents per bu in Argentina’s Up River hub to 81 cents per bu over July CME futures in the week from May 29 to Wednesday June 3.

In the same period, the July Corn FOB Brazil Premium in the Santos Port rose by 5 cents per bu to 110 cents per bu over the same underlying contract.

In Brazil’s Northern Arc, the Corn fob Brazil Northern Arc Premium for July held steady at 105 cents per bu over July CME futures during the week of May 29 to June 3.

Outright prices fell by $1.50 per tonne in Argentina to $201.75 per tonne, by $5.75 per tonne in Brazil’s Santos Port to $213.25 per tonne and by $7.75 per tonne in Brazil’s Northern Arc to $211.25 per tonne in the week from May 29 to June 3.

Argentina has sold an estimated 500,000-600,000 tonnes of corn to China in 2026, with exports expected to reach at least 1 million tonnes this year, sources told Fastmarkets. The sales were driven by highly competitive pricing, which could position Argentina ahead of major suppliers such as the US and Ukraine in China’s 2026 corn import mix.

The decree reducing export taxes (retenciones) in Argentina has been published, confirming the government’s announcement that corn and sorghum will undergo quarterly reductions starting January 2027, falling by 0.25 percentage points per trimester, from the current 8.5%, reaching 7.5% by the end of the year, and 5.5% by the end of 2028.

Brazilian corn shipments increased by 543.4% to 250,449 tonnes from the previous year’s 38,928 tonnes, customs data showed on June 3.

Brazil’s National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) projects Brazilian corn exports at 485,695 tonnes in June, versus 568,668 tonnes in the same month last year. The association kept its estimate for total exports in 2026 at 44 million tonnes, compared with 41.6 million tonnes last year.

Ukrainian corn prices edged lower in the week ending Friday June 5 amid preparations for the incoming new-crop wheat and barley harvests.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for corn FOB Ukraine HIPP was $237 per tonne on Thursday.

On the domestic market, DAP prices were also lower, with bids heard up to $227-228 per tonne for spot and June delivery.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for corn CPT Ukraine was $229 per tonne for June delivery.

Soybeans crush margins

Activity in soybean cash markets edged slightly higher, with more than 25 cargoes reported traded during the week, compared to 20 cargoes last week.

CFR China outright prices dropped as plunging CME futures outweighed rising cash premiums.

Futures fell sharply throughout the week, falling to multi-month lows as technical selling intensified. Soy products and grains futures also dropped week on week.

Soybean cargoes for July loading out of Brazil were reported traded at $1.82-1.95 per bushel, while August cargoes were heard at $1.90-2.10 per bu and September cargoes at $2.05-2.15 per bu, all over July CME futures on a CFR China basis.

New crop cargoes were also traded, with March cargoes reported at $1.02-1.03 per bu over March futures and April cargoes at $1.00 per bu over May futures.

Fastmarkets’ soybean CFR China premium for July-shipment cargoes was assessed on Friday at $1.95 cents per bu over July futures, up sharply from $1.68 per bu over the same contract the week prior.

Fastmarkets’ soybean CFR China, meanwhile, fell to $486.75 per tonne from $501.75 per tonne the previous week on the back of plummeting futures.

At origin, the soybean FOB Brazil Paranaguá Paper premium also ticked higher week on week, with the July basis assessed at $0.66 per bu on Wednesday June 3, before the Brazilian bank holiday on June 4, up from $0.48 per bu the previous Friday. The uptick was not sufficient to offset the drop in futures, with July outright prices dropping by $5.25 per tonne in the same comparison to $448.25 per tonne on June 3.

Fastmarkets Agriculture understands the challenges faced by the grains and oilseeds industry due to disruptions in production and logistics. As global demand for food, livestock and machinery continues to rise, these disruptions cause increased opacity and volatility in the market.