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The global wheat market experienced a widespread decline, largely attributed to the commencement of harvests in the Black Sea region, the United States and parts of Europe. According to trade sources, buyers are currently holding off on purchases, anticipating further price reductions. However, a notable number of transactions within tenders were reported during the week.
South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group bought 55,000-65,000 tonnes of feed wheat from ADM at $275.93 per tonne CFR Pyungtaek and Kunsan/Ulsan, plus a $1.50 per tonne second-port charge, expected for September 17-October 6 shipment if sourced from the Black Sea.
Along with that, a group of South Korean millers (KOFMIA) also purchased 100,000 tonnes of US milling wheat for October 15-December 10 shipment, including various grades, and 50,000 tonnes of Australian wheat for November 15-December 15 shipment.
The Philippines buyer was reportedly heard making a purchase of Australian feed wheat for a September shipment, with price ideas around $263 per tonne FOB Western ports equivalent and just below $260 per tonne if sourced from other ports.
Saudi Arabia’s General Food Security Authority (GFSA) has announced a tender to buy 655,000 tonnes of 12.5% protein milling wheat for September-October delivery to Red Sea ports, which is set to close on July 6.
In Australia, the market experienced a continued decline, attributed to the wet weather observed last week across the majority of cropping regions, with additional rainfall forecasted for the coming week in certain states. Trade sources indicated that this development has provided relief to producers and traders, leading to the release of previously stockpiled quantities into the market. These stocks had been held as a precautionary measure against potential dryness in New South Wales and the possible need to address domestic requirements.
Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment for wheat 10.5% FOB Australia W APW decreased by $3 to $270 per tonne for August loading on Thursday, along with wheat 9.5% FOB Australia W ASW, which was also down by $1 and assessed at $266 per tonne Western Australia.
In the Black Sea region, wheat prices continued to decline. However, by the end of the week, there were indications of stabilization, with some trade sources suggesting that the market might have reached its lowest point. Despite this, buying interest remained subdued as importers chose to wait for clearer signals on price trends.
The price assessment for wheat 11.5% FOB Ukraine declined by $3.50 to $224.50 per tonne for August loading on Thursday.
Feed wheat FOB Ukraine prices were down by $2 and assessed at $220 per tonne Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC) on Thursday.In Russia, despite the ongoing fuel crisis, no significant impact has been observed on export prices yet. An additional factor that contributed to the price drop was the further weakening of the national currency.
Fastmarkets’ assessment for wheat 12.5% FOB Russia decreased by $5 per tonne week on week to $226.50 per tonne for August shipment on Thursday July 2, while wheat 11.5% FOB Russia decreased by $4 per tonne to $225 per tonne.
Meanwhile, the harvest has officially started in Russia. Despite a recent delay in harvest compared to last year, the early yields are showing a significant 23% increase year on year so far.In the EU Black Sea region, increased harvest pressure and ample supply expectations across the Black Sea region kept market sentiment bearish.
Fastmarkets’ assessment for wheat 11.5% FOB Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB) moved down by $0.75 per tonne week on week to $232.25 per tonne on Thursday for loading in August, while wheat 12.5% FOB Constanta/Varna/Burgas was $233.25 per tonne, down by $2.50 per tonne, and feed wheat FOB Constanta/Varna/Burgas was $225.75 per tonne, down by $1.50 per tonne.
European wheat markets remained broadly stagnant through the week, with flat futures, stable basis levels and limited demand. Meanwhile, harvest pressure, early yield reports and weather risks gradually became the main focus for price direction. Nonetheless, a decrease was observed in flat prices.
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for wheat 11% FOB France has declined by $1.25 per tonne to $235 per tonne for August loading on July 2.
Meanwhile, the latest France Agrimer report revealed that the wheat harvest has progressed to 26%, while conditions have deteriorated further by 6 percentage points, dropping to 68%.
Wheat 12.5% FOB Baltic Fastmarkets’ price assessment also dropped by $2.25 per tonne to $237 per tonne, along with wheat 12.5% FOB Germany losing $2.25 per tonne to $243.25 per tonne assessed on July 2.
Meanwhile, wheat 12.5% FOB Poland remained at $239.25 per tonne by the end of the period, and wheat 11.5% FOB Germany gained 25 cents to $238.50 per tonne for August loading.
Corn cash premiums and outright prices were mostly higher in the US and Argentina, while corn futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) ended the week lower despite finding support in USDA data.The September corn contract on the CME fell by 0.24% in the past five days to close at $4.23 per bu on July 2.The highly anticipated USDA acreage and stocks report provided support for prices for most of the week, as it set US corn stocks at 5.29 billion bu, below the average 5.39 billion bu in trade estimates before the report’s release. The figure was 14% above the 4.64 billion bu as of June 1, 2025.USDA estimated the US corn planted area for all purposes in 2026 at 95.343 million acres, down by 3% from the previous year’s 98.78 million acres, and slightly above the 95.33 million acres from March’s Prospective Plantings forecast.The figure was 0.4% above the average market estimate of 94.94 million acres and was the fourth-highest planted acreage in the US since 1944.The heatwave in the US has been a key factor for futures. It has supported prices due to potential impacts on US crops, but it has also pressured them as the hot weather ends and new rains are expected in the US Corn Belt.Brazilian corn output was projected at 142.5 million tonnes in 2026/27, up by 3.3% from the 2025/26 estimate of 138 million tonnes, due to a 2.2% increase in sown area to 23.3 million hectares, data from local consultancy Itaú BBA showed.IIn the physical markets, August US premiums rose by 7 cents per bu at the US Gulf compared with Friday, with the corn FOB US Gulf premium assessed at 102 cents per bu on July 2. In the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the corn FOB US PNW premium was steady at 150 cents per bu in the same period, both over September CME futures.
Outright prices also moved higher, with corn FOB US Gulf assessed at $206.75 per tonne as of July 2, a $3.25 per tonne increase from June 26. In the PNW, corn FOB US PNW August prices rose by $0.50 per tonne to $225.50 per tonne in the same period.
In South America, premiums and prices were higher in Argentina, offsetting losses on the CME, but mixed in Brazil.
The corn FOB Argentina premium rose by 1 cent per bu in Argentina’s Up River hub to 97 cents per bu over September CME futures in the week from June 26 to July 2. Corn FOB Argentina prices increased by $1 per tonne to $204.75 per tonne in the same period.
The corn FOB Brazil premium in the Santos Port fell by 4 cents per bu to 121 cents per bu over the September CME contract, in the week from June 26 to July 2. Fastmarkets’ price assessment for corn FOB Brazil prices fell by $1 per tonne to $214.25 per tonne.
In Brazil’s Northern Arc, the corn fob Brazil Northern Arc premium for August rose by 1 cent per bu, assessed at 124 cents per bu over September CME futures during the week from June 26 to July 2, while corn fob Brazil Northern Arc prices rose by $1 per tonne to $215.25 per tonne in the same period.
In Ukraine, the corn market exhibited minimal fluctuations following weeks of decline, as buyers remained hesitant to engage, and sellers refrained from further price reductions.
The corn FOB Ukraine HIPP stayed at $224 per tonne for August loading, unchanged week on week, along with corn CPT Ukraine declining by $1 per tonne to $214 per tonne.
Meanwhile, on a delivered basis, corn cif Marmara, Turkey has dropped by $3 per tonne to $238 per tonne, also due to the absence of demand. Meanwhile, 2.1 million tonnes of the 3 million tonnes corn import quota were already cleared, leaving 900,000 tonnes to be covered by the end of July.
Activity in soybean cash markets remained lackluster, with Fastmarkets tracking just over ten cargoes traded while some sources mentioned as many as 20.
China CFR outright prices increased as both Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures and China CFR soybean premiums rose week on week.
On Tuesday, the USDA released its Grains Stocks and Acreage reports, with soybean numbers aligned with pre-report expectations. Soybean stocks as of June 1 were reported at 1.06 billion bu, up by 5% year on year, and new crop acreage also up by 5% year on year to 85.4 million acres.
After the reports, soybean futures spiked, finding some renewed support as part of the market had priced in more bearish figures.
August-shipment cargoes were reported traded at $2.05-$2.10 per bu and September cargoes at $2.30 per bu, all over November futures.
Fastmarkets’ soybean CFR China premium for August-shipment cargoes was assessed at $2.29 per bu over August CME futures on July 2, up from $2.19 per bu over the same contract on June 26.
Fastmarkets’ soybean CFR China was assessed at $501.75 per tonne on July 2, up by $6.25 per tonne from $495.5 per tonne on June 26.
Origin markets were also quiet over the week, with scarce trades reported even in the more liquid Paranaguá paper market in Brazil.
In downstream markets, soyoil CME futures continued to dive lower, with prices down by more than 4% in the week and off nearly 11 cents per lb, or 14%, from their recent peak one month ago.
Fastmarkets Agriculture understands the challenges faced by the grains and oilseeds industry due to disruptions in production and logistics. As global demand for food, livestock and machinery continues to rise, these disruptions cause increased opacity and volatility in the market. Discover more.