US Scrap Trends Outlook: February

Low supply, strong demand to spur scrap prices higher in Feb, market says

Participants in the North American ferrous scrap market expect a third straight month of rising prices amid healthy steel mill demand and sluggish inbound flows of material, according to the latest Scrap Trends Outlook.

The bullish sentiment kept the Trend Indicator in positive territory, at 64.5 for February, compared with 70.5 for January. The Outlook’s prediction model suggests a potential for ferrous scrap prices to rise 5.3% on average next month.

More than half of the respondents to the survey expected prices to rise next month, while 35% said that prices would trade sideways.

One-third of the respondents forecast higher demand to drive the market, while a quarter pointed to lower supply.

Steel scrap demand

Demand for material remains robust, with domestic mills replenishing inventories and hot-rolled coil prices starting to move upward. Mills are also having to compete with the nation’s docks in the wake of solid export activity. The US has sold 11 ferrous scrap cargoes to Turkey since the start of January.

The overall trend consensus edged up to 67% compared with 61% for January, showing that confidence in the market’s direction has increased.

Make sense of the US scrap market and track the critical indicators impacting price movements in our February outlook.

What to read next
Mexico’s production and consumption of long steel fell year-on-year in May due to weakness in the country's construction sector, but posted a month on month gain, according to the latest data from the Mexican steel chamber, CANACERO.
Despite the current headwinds, strategic partnerships and continued investment in the right areas, coupled with the underlying strong long-term demand fundamentals, will pave the way for success for lithium producers, according to the participants of the executive panel during the Fastmarkets Lithium Supply and Battery Raw Materials Conference, which took place from June 23-26 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The US and Europe must adopt long-term, consistent policies and should learn lessons from China, according to lithium industry experts speaking at Fastmarkets’ Lithium Supply and Battery Raw Materials Conference in Las Vegas, US, over June 22-25.
This price is a part of the Fastmarkets scrap package. For more information on our North America Ferrous Scrap methodology and specifications please click here. To get in touch about access to this price assessment, please contact customer.success@fastmarkets.com.
This consultation was done as an adhoc methodology review process, aiming to better reflect the physical market under indexation, considering its reduced liquidity linked to the combination of seasonal demand patterns and the implementation of cross-border import tariffs between the US and China. No feedback was received during the consultation period and therefore Fastmarkets will […]
Here are the key takeaways from market participants on US ferrous scrap metal prices, market confidence, inventory and more from our July survey.