What is the outlook for the US scrap market?
- The US ferrous scrap market continues to be dominated by lower demand
- The trend indicator dropped significantly from 52.1 to 45.1 in September
- But the actual scrap price showed a 0.52% increase month-on-month
- The market consensus remained split, with the more positive brokers at 50.0, the cautious sellers at 44.4 and the more pessimistic buyers at 40.7
Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for September or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.
Scrap market sentiment turned bearish
September’s ferrous scrap market is trending lower, with a significant drop in the trend indicator from 52.1 in August to 45.1. This reflects a bearish sentiment compared to previous months and is largely driven by lower demand across the market. This trend indicator equates to an estimated scrap price decline of 2.6% next month. The actual scrap price registered a modest 0.52% increase month-on-month in September.
Lower demand, higher inventories and the craziest election that our country has ever known.
Survey participant
Divergence in market consensus among market participants
The market consensus remains split, as indicated by a trend indicator consensus of 50.0 among brokers, contrasting with the more pessimistic outlook from buyers, where the indicator sits at 40.7. Sellers maintain a relatively more cautious stance, with their trend indicator at 44.4.
September scrap market stumbles amid weak demand
The market continues to be dominated by lower demand as the primary driver, overshadowing other potential factors. Industry participants may need to brace for further declines as September unfolds.
Overall, the ferrous scrap market’s direction seems clear, but there’s uncertainty among participants on how bearish the market will be for scrap prices in the coming weeks.
