Framing lumber markets face tariff uncertainty, weak demand and mixed signals

Key takeaways:

• Uncertainty around tariffs and anti-dumping duties continues to disrupt North American lumber markets, with weak demand compounding the challenges
• Southern pine and western S-P-F sales remain sluggish, as buyers delay purchases amid mounting price pressures and weather-related consumption issues
• While some regions see modest price increases, abundant supplies and faltering futures markets are creating mixed signals across the industry

What challenges are framing lumber markets in North America facing?

Stiff, lingering headwinds confronted framing lumber markets across North America.

Uncertainty surrounding tariffs, the market’s reaction to last month’s hike in anti-dumping duties on Canadian shipments to the US, or lack thereof in many species, were ongoing distractions impacting lumber prices.

Sales of western S-P-F were dull as traders awaited the Commerce Department’s countervailing duty announcement. Many mills quoted well above recently reported levels but sold next to nothing at the higher quotes.

Some of those same mills reportedly offered discounts for prompt-shipping loads. Duties, tariffs and macroeconomic factors were a distraction, but a lack of overall demand continued to plague the market.

What role is the futures board playing market dynamics?

A faltering futures board added to the mixed signals, with the September contract trading more than $40 per thousand board feet below the previous week’s close on Thursday August 7.

The front month dropped to near par — or a mild discount — to the cash market in most deliverable species amid relatively strong selling.

How are weather conditions affecting the Southern lumber market?

Across the South, heavy rains replaced sweltering heat in impeding consumption, and the “dog days of summer” remained in full swing. Southern pine sales faded as the week progressed. Buyers throughout the distribution pipeline covered minimal immediate needs by midweek and largely stepped to the sidelines by Wednesday afternoon.

Discounts surfaced more frequently in late trading as mills accepted counters to clear prompt loads. Many buyers noted a perception that downward pressure on prices was mounting, which prompted them to delay replenishment in many cases.

What trends are emerging in Coast dry framing?

In Coast dry framing, modest improvements to sales and the accompanying Canadian duty news continued to drive price increases in Douglas fir dimension. Mill quotes rose in late trading. Order files remained two weeks out for most mills. In green fir, prices of the narrow widths stabilized as mills kiln dried most production due to higher returns.

In the Inland market, mills were unable to push much on quotes. 2×4 was strong across grades and species, but price gains usually topped out in the $5-10 per mbf range. Demand failed to keep pace with abundant supplies in 2×6, with prices cracking in spots. Upward momentum evident in studs the previous week cooled off.

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This piece was last updated on 13/08/2025 the information is correct as of this date.