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A major merger and acquisition (M&A) wave, conservatively estimated to exceed €450 million ($516 million) in deal value across European sawn timber markets—including over €160 million in disclosed deals plus several large undisclosed transactions and recent distressed asset acquisitions—signals a fundamental shift toward market concentration that could likely reduce pricing volatility while creating new competitive dynamics favoring integrated participants and Baltic production hubs.

My last Viewpoint at the end of February provided some thoughts on the outlook for Asian paper and board markets in 2025, and it highlighted three areas of concern that could hold back growth: the trade war, China’s sluggish economy and inflation. Fast forward four months and a lot has happened, especially related to the trade war. In this Viewpoint, I provide my latest thoughts on developments in these three areas and then drill down specifically on the containerboard market and look at what has happened and where things are going.

Explore the future of containerboard prices with our analysis from the Fastmarkets Paper Packaging Monitor on demand recovery.

Discover how President Trump’s tariffs impact the US fluff pulp export market, specifically targeting the EU and China.