Argentina’s corn and sunflower production projections lowered

Argentina's corn and sunflower crop forecasts have been downgraded due to recent weather challenges, according to the latest BAGE report

Argentina’s corn and sunflower crop projections were revised lower in the week ending Wednesday March 20 after a week with abundant rainfall in much of the center and south of the country, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) said in its weekly crop report update on Thursday March 21.

The corn harvest advanced only by 0.5 percentage points to 3.7% of the projected 7.2 million hectares.

Due to the heat wave in February, Bage’s updated production projection is set to 54 million tonnes, down by 2.5 million tonnes compared with the previous one.

Crops rated in good-to-excellent conditions declined by one percentage point in the week to 24% of the total planted area, while areas considered bad rose by four percentage points to 21%.

Areas rated as dry were 21% of the total, down by two percentage points from the previous week, while areas with excessive moisture totaled 2%, adding one percentage point.

View our corn prices

Sunflower production

Sunflower harvest moved up by 16.4 percentage points week on week to 59.2% complete for the 2023-24 cycle, with work concentrating mainly in the southern regions before the rains.

The progress represents a year-on-year delay of 13.7 percentage points.

Yields obtained in Buenos Aires and La Pampa showed results in the range of 8-35 quintals per hectare.

The wide range reflects the harsh conditions the crop endured, such as “thermo-hydric stress suffered during January and February, while the crop went through stages of differentiation, formation and filling of the reproductive structures,” BAGE said.

Sunflower crops rated in good-to-excellent conditions dropped by five percentage points in the week to 25% of the total planted area, while areas considered to be bad rose by eight percentage points to 29%.

Areas rated as dry totaled 17%, down from 24% last week, while areas with excessive moisture increased by six percentage points to 28%.

BAGE has updated its sunflower output projection to 3.6 million tonnes, down by 200,000 tonnes from the previous estimate and down by 1 million tonnes from the 2022-23 harvest.

Additional revisions to production could be made following recent storms of wind and hail but also due to the increase in records of Phomopsis and other end-of-cycle diseases, BAGE said in its report.

Soybean in excellent condition

Soybean crops rated in good-to-excellent conditions moved up by one percentage point to 31% of the total planted area, while areas considered bad were steady at 16%.

Areas rated as dry dropped by two percentage points to 21% of the total, while areas with excessive moisture moved to 1%.

Report collaborators shared “reductions in potential yield due to abortion of flowers and pods due to high temperatures and absence of precipitation in late January and early February,” BAGE said.

The current soybean production projection remained at 52.5 million tonnes.

View our soybean prices

What to read next
US corn futures were up on Thursday August 7 after falling for three consecutive sessions, but upside momentum was limited by sluggish weekly net sales and exports, along with adequate soil moisture supporting crop development.
The forecast for the new wheat crop in Australia improved as rain finally brought relief to most of the producing regions in the country, Fastmarkets learned.
A tight supply scenario kept Brazilian domestic animal fats prices firm in the week to Thursday July 31, despite the recent disruption of tallow flows following the 50% US tariff against Brazil announced on July 9. Export prices were unchanged amid ongoing uncertainties.
The Russian grain harvest had reached 33.75 million tonnes from 10.32 million hectares as of Monday July 21, according to official government data. Harvest progress had advanced to 21.5% of the planned 47.92 million ha, a rise of 7 percentage points in one week from 14.5%.
Black Sea wheat prices have surged in recent weeks due to tight supply and rising domestic demand, with market dynamics and harvest progress hinting at potential further shifts in the weeks ahead.
The US biomass-based diesel (BBD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industries are at a pivotal moment, as evolving federal policies like the 45Z tax credit and Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) reshape market dynamics, creating both challenges and opportunities for domestic production, feedstock sustainability, and global trade.