Battery raw materials market update November 2024

Read Fastmarkets' monthly battery raw materials market update for November 2024, focusing on raw materials including lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and more

The Fastmarkets team consistently monitors market shifts to provide timely, market-reflective and valuable insights. We’re committed to supporting informed decision-making with in-depth analysis of the key factors driving market trends, prices and forecasts in the battery raw materials market.

Lithium: Lithium oversupply still expected despite production cuts from Pilbara Minerals

Key points

  1. Lithium-ion battery supply chain depressed
    The lithium-ion battery supply chain is still significantly depressed, particularly outside of China. While sentiment in China had remained relatively stable until recently, it has now shifted to a distinctly bearish outlook. This change could potentially be beneficial, as it may prompt China to take action to mitigate the worsening oversupply situation.

  2. More regulation needed for lithium market
    In a move reminiscent of the copper industry, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has suggested that China’s copper sector should regulate smelting capacity to prevent “competitive expansion.” This kind of regulation is precisely what is needed in the lithium market and other battery raw materials (BRMs).  

  3. Slight uptick in lithium and spodumene prices
    Lithium prices and spodumene prices have shown a slight uptick following the announcement that Pilbara Minerals plans to place its Ngungaju plant into care and maintenance. This decision is expected to decrease spodumene output by 100,000 tonnes in FY2025, which is roughly equivalent to 12,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). 

What do our analysts say?

Pilbara Minerals’ production cut is a step in the right direction, but whereas the last time the Ngungaju plant was closed in October 2020, when it was operated by Altura Metals, it signalled the end of the bear market, this time its closure will not have the same effect. The cutback, an equivalent to around 12,500 tonnes LCE, on its own will not be enough to stop the oversupply – Fastmarkets’ forecasts is for a supply surplus of around 90,000 tonnes LCE next year, on top of this year’s 100,000+ tonnes surplus – so a lot more cuts are going to be needed.

Will Adams, Fastmarkets


Cobalt: Cobalt prices at eight-year lows with market headed for oversupply in 2025

Key points

  1. Sustained record growth in cobalt production
    The Q3 production results from the world’s two largest cobalt producers indicate sustained record growth.

  2. Rising copper prices incentivize cobalt production
    CMOC has consistently increased production in Q3 2024, driven by rising copper prices that incentivize mining operations. 

  3. Cobalt sulfate market poised for oversupply in 2025
    Unless there is a notable increase in cobalt sulfate demand in 2025, the market is poised for another year of oversupply, which will likely exert further downward pressure on prices.

What do our analysts say?

CMOC reported its January-September production was up 127% year on year, surpassing its own 2024 guidance in just three quarters. Given the world’s largest cobalt producer has more than doubled production highlights just what a dire situation the market is in. Fastmarkets expects the market to remain oversupplied heading into 2025 and further weakness seems likely even though prices are already at eight-year lows.

Rob Searle, Fastmarkets


Nickel: Market participants left disappointed by lack of detail in China’s stimulus package

Key points

  1. Recent price surge in LME nickel price unsustainable
    In October, the LME nickel cash price experienced an 8.7% decline, as the recent surge to a high of US$17,900 per tonne proved to be unsustainable. 

  2. Lack of detail in China’s stimulus package leaves market disappointed
    The early-October peak followed China’s announcement of a stimulus package; however, the lack of specific details left the market feeling disappointed, leading to a sell-off. 

  3. LME nickel cash price settled late October
    By the end of October, the LME nickel cash price settled at $15,530 per tonne, positioning itself towards the lower end of this year’s relatively narrow trading range. 

What do our analysts say?

Despite the LME nickel price is currently towards the bottom of the relatively narrow range within which nickel has traded in 2024, apart from a brief peak in May. Although there might have been some disappointment at the lack of detail in the Chinese government’s stimulus announcement, the market’s oversupplied fundamentals (we forecast a 94,000 tonne surplus in 2024) are also weighing on the nickel price.

Olivier Masson, Fastmarkets


Manganese: Manganese prices following downward trend in other NCM material markets

Key points

  1. Decline in manganese sulfate price
    Manganese sulfate prices experienced a decline in late October, driven by persistently weak spot demand. 

  2. Manganese ore prices drop significantly 
    Despite a drop in upstream manganese ore prices throughout the month, manganese sulfate prices remained stable. 

  3. Sulfate processors reduce offers
    Demand from China’s pCAM buyers has been lacklustre, prompting manganese sulfate processors to reduce their offers. 

What do our analysts say?

Prices for manganese sulfate fell in the last week of October following 4 weeks of rangebound flat pricing. The pricing trend follows movements in other NCM material markets and highlights the ongoing headwinds and weakness in EV sales employing these nickel-based chemistries.

Rob Searle, Fastmarkets


Graphite: Next few months will be critical for graphite producers outside of China, facing insufficient demand

Key points

  1. Natural graphite miners implement supply cuts
    Ongoing weakness in demand has compelled major natural graphite miners to implement significant supply cuts. Consequently, non-China natural graphite production has decreased by 45% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024. 

  2. Flake graphite prices remained stable 
    Following the Golden Week holiday in October, green petroleum coke prices in China surged by 16%, driven by heightened activity in the synthetic anode sector and the aluminium industry. In contrast, flake graphite prices remained stable at a low of $450 per tonne in October. 

  3. Fine flake graphite prices stayed steady through October
    Prices for fine flake graphite, the primary feedstock for the battery industry, stayed steady at $450 per tonne throughout October, slightly above the lowest recorded price of $430 per tonne in 2020. 

What do our analysts say?

Depressed prices and the limited imports of graphite by China has put natural graphite producers outside China in a challenging situation. Most producers have halted operations, relying on inventories for sales and experience liquidity issues. The coming months will be critical for most graphite producers outside China, facing insufficient demand for their material in Europe and North America.

Georgi Georgiev, Fastmarkets


Black mass and recycling: Why are battery recyclers feeling short-term pressure?

Key points

  1. South Korean refiners face challenges
    Demand in Southeast Asia remains strong, while South Korean refiners continue to face challenges from low metal prices. 

  2. Gigafactory production scrap makes up highest portion of recycling feedstock
    Currently, gigafactory production scrap makes up 69% of the recycling feedstock, as fewer lithium-ion batteries than anticipated reach the end of their life cycle.

  3. India emerges as battery recycling leader
    India is emerging as a leader in lithium-ion battery recycling, leveraging its extensive expertise in precious metal extraction from e-waste and the significant amounts of consumer electronic waste generated by its 1.4 billion population. 

What do our analysts say?

Oversupply of nickel, cobalt and lithium coupled with a shortage of end-of-life battery material has put serious short-term pressure on the economic models of battery recyclers. In the west this is causing recyclers to rethink their timelines on becoming vertically integrated which will further delay recycling capacity and make Europe less competitive internationally.

Luke Sweeney, Fastmarkets


Battery raw material demand: Slower growth in the US and Europe mean Chinese EV market continues to support global demand

Key points

  1. Record sale of EVs in China
    In September, the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market achieved a record sale of 1.1 million plug-in EVs, slightly below the 1.3 million units that the US anticipates selling throughout 2024. 

  2. Year-over-year growth in Europe despite negative sentiment
    Despite ongoing negative sentiment, the broader European market experienced a year-over-year growth of 6% in September. Europe’s challenges are partly attributed to insufficient support for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which have significantly contributed to the demand growth for EVs in both China and the US this year.

  3. UK EV market healthiest in Europe
    The UK EV market stands out as the healthiest major market in Europe, with its plug-in EV market share rising from 23.2% year-to-date in September to 26.1%. This growth is primarily driven by a doubling of PHEV growth compared to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), with market shares increasing from 26.2% to 13.2%, alongside heightened competition. 

What do our analysts say?

The Chinese EV market continues to support most of global demand growth as the US and Europe in particular have slowed down this year, but as its exports continue to grow in countries welcoming to them demand will quickly become less concentrated between these three regions. Europe’s new emissions regulations and the US’s increased political certainty should buoy EV sales going into 2025.

Connor Watts, Fastmarkets


Conclusion

These evolving market dynamics pose both threats and opportunities for investors, battery producers and the global electric vehicle (EV) sector. We anticipate that the volatility within the battery raw materials market will persist through the end of the year.

Ready to deepen your understanding of the battery raw materials markets? Find out more about Fastmarkets’ battery raw materials insights and prices today and stay informed about all the critical developments in these ever-changing market.

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