Speaking at the forum, which is part of Singapore International Ferrous Week (SIFW) 2025, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research commodity strategist, Auerelia Waltham, told delegates that a quarter of steel-related demand in China over the past six months was export-related, with manufacturing sector exports contributing the bulk of the 2-3% year-on-year growth seen in the Chinese steel market in the first quarter of 2025.
The stronger performance of manufacturing-related exports has continued to displace the shortfall in demand from the ailing Chinese construction industry, which has been plagued by poor consumption and investor doubts over China’s real estate market, she said.
But speaking to Fastmarkets on the sidelines at SIFW, a trader from Shanghai said the shift in demand away from construction-related materials towards finished steel products in the manufacturing sector and semi-finished steel exports had accelerated in recent quarters, with larger steelmakers eagerly switching to the more profitable steel cargoes.
And Waltham also told delegates there will be a clear decline in steel consumption in the Chinese construction industry over the next five to 10 years, which will be reflected in a slowdown in new transport and housing projects across the country.
In stark contrast to the domestic market, the year-on-year growth in export-related steel products hit 6.3% in the first quarter of 2025, pushing the total to 27.43 million tonnes – its highest level since 2016, according to Chinese customs data.
International headwinds
Another speaker at the Iron Ore Forum, Xinzhi Zhang, a trader with wholesaler Sino Crown International, told delegates that while China remains the largest manufacturer in the world, the emergence of tit-for-tat tariffs on imports across major trading blocs would put pressure on Chinese exports of finished steel and consumer goods.
And a Singapore trader attending the conference told Fastmarkets: “Not only is the heightened tariff on steel products expected to deal a direct blow on Chinese steel exports, the indirect impact of tariffs on [other] major exporters of manufactured goods to the US, such as Vietnam, is expected to significantly reduce semi-finished steel exports from China too.”
“The fact that China’s steel market has become so accustomed to export-led sales, exposes the steel market to risks in policy shifts that could affect international trade flows,” the trader added.
Waltham also told delegates that the heightened intensity of anti-dumping investigations into Chinese steel was likely to have a debilitating impact on steel exports.
And another trader told Fastmarkets on the sidelines that, in the absence of a strong domestic market to anchor steel demand, it was likely that China will have to navigate through an increasingly challenging international trading terms, most of which will be aimed at curtailing low-cost Chinese steel exports.
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