MethodologyContact usLogin
Chinese consumer market growth has underperformed since the reopening in 2023, but there was some improvement in the second half of 2024 thanks to the consumer goods trade-in program. This policy is likely to continue, with the aim of building on its success in 2024, expanding in terms of subsidized percentages, consumer products categories and the population coverage.
Data from the Ministry of Commerce as of December 13, 2024, shows that:
In October 2024, the policy’s effects and its release of pent-up consumption accelerated. It took 79 days for national household appliance trade-in sales to exceed 100 billion yuan, but only 40 days to increase from 100 billion yuan in sales to 200 billion yuan.
Although the current trade-in policy for consumer goods was launched in March 2024, it had little impact initially due to the lack of support funds in the early stages and financial pressures on local governments. The timing for large-scale promotion and major effects from the policy was mainly seen after September. There is still plenty of room for improvement in 2025 in terms of extending the subsidy time frame, increasing financial support, expanding the list of subsidized goods and relaxing the threshold for enterprise participation, especially when considering that Chinese exports will be facing greater pressure under the Trump administration and that it will take time for the real estate market to stabilize.
The current round of government subsidies for the trade-in program has almost been exhausted, but the central government has reiterated its intent to continue this policy in 2025 with a higher fund pool from the new issuance of special government bonds and wider coverage of products categories and provinces involved. Apart from this program, the Central Economic Work Conference in December has given other relatively specific arrangements to boost consumption in 2025, with detailed policies possibly to be announced during the “Two Sessions” in March, including:
Although in our experience there will be some lag in detailed policies, we expect that the scale and scope of the ultra-long-term special treasury bonds used to subsidize the new stimulus will be expanded in 2025 or even possibly 2026 as well.
Interested in learning more? You can get a free sample of the monthly Fastmarkets Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor, which provides insights and analysis into market movements in the region.
Learn how to monitor packaging prices using cost and price indices and understand the underlying cost drivers, from material cost to labor, energy and more. Examples include cartonboard, liquid container and paper bag.