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The appreciation of the US dollar against the peso contributed to a slight increase in containerboard prices in Mexico in September, as a stronger dollar tends to boost the country’s exports and limit availability in the domestic market.
“This currency issue is the only pressure we are observing at the moment. If demand increases, even slightly, we may experience further price increases as early as October,” a source said.
Another factor, less mentioned by most market participants but still on the radar, is the merger between Westrock and Smurfit Kappa, which is somehow contributing to reduced product availability.
“There is high demand and low supply, and we are already beginning to feel the effects of this merger [reducing supply],” a second source said.
Fastmarkets’ price survey detected a 100-peso price increase for domestic recycled testliner and fluting, moving prices to 12,500-12,900 pesos ($653-674) per tonne and 11,500-11,900 pesos per tonne respectively, unchanged compared with a year earlier.
Similarly, the slight increase observed in old corrugated container (OCC) prices also tends to contribute to this increase, according to a third source.
The latest data from Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) shows that despite a mild demand scenario in the country this year, the pace of imports remained strong in 2024.
The country imported 481,191 tonnes of containerboard in the first six months of 2024, 6.6% higher than a year earlier. The largest supplier was the US, with 99% of this total.
Recycled paper imports were also up 31% in Mexico this year with 222,664 tonnes, increasing by almost 169,987 tonnes from a year earlier.
According to Fastmarkets Latin American Paper Monitor, there are expectations that demand will slowly resume through the end of 2024, given the recent devaluation of the Mexican peso and the anticipated continuity of this trend in the coming months.
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