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For those who missed the live session, or for attendees looking to refresh their strategy, the data presented remains strikingly urgent. Perhaps the most arresting statistic shared was that nearly 25% of the market was operating cash negative at the time of the analysis. This creates a pressure cooker environment where high-cost producers are forced to make difficult decisions, fundamentally altering the competitive landscape as we move toward 2026.
We have distilled the 60-minute session into a strategic overview of what matters now. Here’s why the insights from our senior price reporter Bryan Smith and economist Patrick Cavanagh are still critical for your planning today.
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The webinar painted a picture of an industry in transition, grappling with profitability challenges and shifting regional dynamics. These three core insights remain the primary drivers of market behavior today.
The recurring theme throughout the session was that current and near-future market movements are largely dictated by supply constraints rather than demand growth. Cavanagh highlighted that ultra-low profitability is the engine driving curtailments and permanent capacity closures.
We saw this play out in real-time with the announcement of the Domtar Crofton mill closure, removing 380,000 tons of NBSK from the market. This wasn’t an isolated incident but a symptom of a broader trend. When prices bounce along the bottom of the cash cost curve – particularly for softwood producers – the market inevitably corrects through rationalization. For buyers and sellers alike, this means paying close attention to producer inventories and closure announcements is more valuable than watching GDP growth for demand signals.
China continues to sit in the driver’s seat, acting as a ceiling for global pulp prices due to massive overcapacity in paper and board. However, a significant shift is occurring in fiber costs. The transcript highlighted that while paper capacity has doubled in four years – growing by an incredible 15 million tons – the raw material dynamics are changing.
Recycled fiber shortages and rising wood chip prices in China are signaling a potential “rising tide” effect. As Chinese producers face higher costs for imported wood chips (driven by weather events and competition), the floor for global pulp prices shifts upward. This counters the deflationary pressure of oversupply, creating a complex environment where overcapacity exists alongside rising input costs.
The webinar drew a sharp contrast between North American and European market stressors.
Want to catch up on the complete analysis? Watch the recording.
The value of the pulp and paper webinar lay not just in the data but in the interpretation of pulp industry sentiment. These quotes from our experts capture the evergreen reality of the current cycle.
“When you see spot market erosion occurring month after month, prices are going to reach a bottom eventually, and we’ve found over the years that the bottom either occurs in China or in US spot markets. Then, typically, there’s a rebound as pricing levels start to reach cash costs for high-cost producers.” – Bryan Smith, senior price reporter
“At that current level, and these current costs, we have 25% of the market cash negative. So this is an enormous amount of capacity that is underwater, and it does point to that need for permanent closures. If we had a healthier supply-demand balance, we would probably see support forming at the higher end of the cash cost curve… but that hasn’t been the case.” – Patrick Cavanagh, economist
“When we combine these supply and demand side effects, we do see tighter demand-supply balance developing in 2026 and 2027. And so that really is the main source of our optimism.” – Patrick Cavanagh, economist
Understanding the macro trends is essential, but leveraging them for decision-making is where the competitive advantage lies. Based on the session’s analysis, here is how you can apply these insights right now.
Fastmarkets forecasts a tightening market with operating rates hitting 91% in 2026 and 2027. In the pulp industry, 90% is often the trigger point where pricing power shifts back to producers. If you are on the buy side, this signals a closing window for securing favorable long-term contracts before leverage shifts. If you are on the sell side, it suggests resilience is required to bridge the gap to this recovery period.
Don’t just track global pulp prices; track the wood. The webinar highlighted that unforeseen events – from typhoons in Southeast Asia to sawmill closures in British Columbia – can rapidly alter the cost curve. With Canadian lumber production forecast to decline by 1 billion board feet, the scarcity of residual chips will be a leading indicator for NBSK pricing spikes.
The consensus is that while a bottom may have formed for hardwood, the softwood market remains volatile. The removal of Russian BSK from bonded warehouses and the divergence of futures markets suggest choppy waters ahead. Volatility management strategies, rather than betting on stability, will be crucial for the next 12 months.
The pulp and paper market is moving fast, and the distinction between a profitable year and a challenging one often comes down to the quality of your market intelligence. The webinar provided a deep dive into the mechanics of these shifts, offering data visualizations and granular regional breakdowns that we have only scratched the surface of here.
To fully understand the nuance of the 2026 forecast and see the detailed cost curves presented by our team, we encourage you to revisit the source material.
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