Ahead of Fastmarkets’ International Iron Ore & Green Steel Summit 2025 (IIOGSS) in Barcelona, Fastmarkets explores key themes expected to capture delegates’ attention. It promises to be another challenging year for the industry.
Iron ore
At the Barcelona conference, the downward pressure on steelmaking raw materials prices is expected to be a recurring theme for the second half of 2025. Meanwhile, mills across major trade blocs grapple with falling steelmaking margins.
Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 62% Fe fines, cfr Qingdao, averaged $98.85 per tonne in May 2025. This was down by $4.60 per tonne compared with the first quarter when the average price was $103.45 per tonne.
The pivot toward lower-grade but still cost-effective steelmaking raw materials continues. Alongside that, a reduction in ore quality from the Pilbara region in Western Australia underscored the demand for a lower-grade iron ore index. Therefore, after a month-long consultation, Fastmarkets launched its index for iron ore 61% Fe fines, cfr Qingdao, on June 2.
Demand for imported high-grade iron ore remains suppressed, with China’s steelmakers trying to keep production costs at a minimum.
One pellet feed producer told Fastmarkets that high-grade iron ore producers will need to navigate an increasingly challenging market in the medium term. Meanwhile, longer-term goals of decarbonization in the steelmaking process gradually come to the fore.
The creation of a “green value chain,” linked to carbon-footprint documentation and the development of a green steel market, would be a necessary precondition. This is needed to accurately assess the real value of high-grade iron ore in the coming years, the producer said.
Pellet and DRI
The weakness of the steel market globally, including in the EU, has been putting pressure on high-grade iron ore pellet prices. Contract premiums were expected to fall in the third quarter of 2025 by the largest margin since 2023, market sources told Fastmarkets recently.
Global crude steel output was 624.4 million tonnes over January-April 2025, according to the World Steel Association (Worldsteel). This marked a 0.4% year-on-year reduction. However, the decline in the EU was much bigger, at 2.4%. The output was 43.5 million tonnes in January-April 2025, down from 44.56 million tonnes a year before.
In the global pellet market, meanwhile, supplies were plentiful. This was mainly because Brazil’s Samarco has been increasing production since the end of last year. The company has said that it intended to produce 15 million tonnes of pellet and ore fines in 2025. In comparison, Samarco’s output was 9.6 million tonnes in 2024.
Meanwhile, the production of direct-reduced iron (DRI) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region (excluding Iran) amounted to 6.78 million tonnes in January-April. This was down by 3.14% year on year, a decrease from 7 million tonnes, according to Worldsteel.
Scrap
Participants in the world’s ferrous scrap market will arrive at the Barcelona conference with their market in a challenging state. There is a reduction in purchasing by the bellwether Turkish market due to competition from lower-cost semi-finished imports. Additionally, operational hurdles faced by recycling firms are grabbing headlines.
Turkish mills booked at least 100,000 tonnes of steel billet from China in the week to June 8, at $450-452 per tonne CFR. This was expected to put further pressure on scrap buying appetite in the East Asian nation, trade sources told Fastmarkets.
Fastmarkets’ daily index for steel scrap, HMS 1&2 (80:20 mix), North Europe origin, cfr Turkey, was $336.44 per tonne on June 9. This was down year on year from $377.40 per tonne.
After a hot 2024, Turkish steel production dipped by 1% year on year in January-April 2025, according to Worldsteel. Scrap imports amounted to 6.57 million tonnes in the first four months, down by 3.8% year on year. This was from 6.83 million tonnes over the same period in 2024, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK).
“There is a lack of material, high processing costs and [an unfavorable] exchange rate,” a UK scrap exporter source told Fastmarkets. “There are [currently] no positive thoughts [on the ferrous scrap market].”
Green steel
The reality of green steel in Europe will be one of the core themes for the Barcelona event. European steelmakers have prioritized decarbonization in recent years. However, the path to greener production has become increasingly difficult due to unfolding difficulties in Europe.
The European steel sector is grappling with surging production costs, a flood of low-cost imports from Asia, and a worsening supply-demand imbalance. According to Worldsteel, crude steel output in Europe edged up to 129.5 million tonnes in 2024 from 126.3 million tonnes in 2023. However, it still fell well short of the 159.4 million tonnes recorded in 2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Meanwhile, apparent steel consumption in the EU declined by 2.3% year on year to 127 million tonnes in 2024. This fell below even 2020 pandemic levels, Eurofer data showed. At the same time, the share of imports in the European market continued to rise, displacing domestic supply.
“In this environment, investing billions into decarbonization is becoming unmanageable,” a European mill source told Fastmarkets. Despite investment in green energy, certifications and Environmental Product Declarations, producers were struggling to charge premiums for low-carbon steel.
Industry sources point to a lack of public projects that mandate green steel and insufficient government incentives to drive demand. “Without policy support through procurement, green steel will stay a niche product,” one mill source warned.
Distribution challenges were also an imminent concern. “Green steel will only gain traction [in the market] if labeled and prioritized in public tenders,” a distributor said. Despite production efforts, buying interest for reduced-carbon steel was still limited.
Another mill source summarized the dilemma: “Green steel must be competitive. But with high costs and limited ability to pass them on, it’s nearly impossible in today’s economic climate.”
Fastmarkets’ latest weekly assessment of the green steel domestic, flat-rolled, differential to HRC index, exw Northern Europe, was €170-200 ($195-229) per tonne on June 5. This index has been stable since May 22.
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