MethodologyContact usSupportLogin
Key takeaways:
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region prices for recycled fiber-based containerboard (RCCM) were mostly lower, with some stable quotes, according to pricing data received for Fastmarkets’ PIX indices published on Tuesday November 4.
The indices for locally produced brown testliner and fluting declined due to increased competition among the regional market participants and competitive offers from Europe in October.
Fastmarkets’ PIX Testliner GCC index fell by $4.60 per tonne, or 0.97%, to $468.62 per tonne and the PIX Fluting GCC index decreased by $4.35 per tonne, or 0.97%, to $445.34 per tonne.
Overall containerboard demand remained mostly stable during October, according to market participants across the GCC region.
In the largest market in the region, Saudi Arabia, there were mixed opinions on demand. For example, one corrugator reported seeing a small dip in demand due to the end of the high summer season.
“The season for date harvesting has finished at the end of September, so the market goes a little bit down, especially for us as we are a big producer of date boxes,” the corrugator told Fastmarkets.
Meanwhile, another Saudi source noted a slight uptick in demand, which he attributed to corrugators using leftover stocks from the high summer season in September and returning with more orders in October.
Sources based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) described demand as more stable in October, with many participants observing no significant changes this month.
“Locally [in the UAE], I do not see any upswing; it is normal containerboard demand. For some customers it is less, for some higher, so [there are] small corrections here and there. But more or less, prices remain the same,” a UAE-based participant told Fastmarkets.
Recovered paper (RCP) prices remained mostly stable in Saudi Arabia in October, according to most sources, although one reported observing increases of 20-30 Saudi Arabian riyal ($5-8) per tonne in RCP prices.
The Indian autumn festival season, which culminated with Diwali in mid-October, had an effect on RCP prices in the UAE. Demand from Indian mills typically rises ahead of their main festival season and then softens afterward. During their festival period, Indian mills often reduce their RCP imports or temporarily close, putting downward pressure on UAE’s RCP prices, according to sources.
The effect has been seen in the UAE, with most participants reporting that RCP prices were stable or higher for some by $5-10 per tonne in August followed by drops of $10-15 per tonne from September into October.
“They are not buying [RCP] like they used to do earlier. You have better [RCP] availability in the UAE and you have to offer lower prices in order to ship it out,” a UAE-based contact said.
European containerboard suppliers maintained a strong hold in the UAE and Saudi Arabia in October. The main competition for brown fluting and testliner came from the regional GCC market participants and from European suppliers in October, participants agreed.
Demand for containerboard in Europe has decreased notably so far in the second half of 2025 compared with the first half, according to Fastmarkets’ packaging economist Tero Eerikäinen.
Consumer spending has not improved and an anticipated recovery in demand is likely to occur later and be more subdued than initially projected, Eerikäinen noted.
Consequently, containerboard production has decreased recently and it is anticipated that operating rates in Western Europe will drop to 84% in the second half of the year from 89% in the first half. This is prompting European producers to actively look for overseas buyers for their containerboard to enhance their operational performance, Eerikäinen said.
Due to weaker demand and increased recycled containerboard capacity in Europe, regional overcapacity has worsened, likely prompting more producers to explore export markets. Eerikäinen projected that overcapacity in Western Europe would exceed 2.2 million tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2025 and then decrease to 1.5 million tonnes in 2026.
Increased and competitive offers from Europe, along with the entry of regional newcomer Al Jawdah have intensified competition among regional producers. GCC-based producers fear that this will limit their attempts to increase prices while the market approaches the high-demand season driven by preparations for the holy month of Ramadan, which next year starts in mid-February and ends with the Eid al-Fitr celebrations.
“It is impacting us a lot; it is impacting my volumes,” a GCC-based producer told Fastmarkets. “[The lead-up to Ramadan] is my only chance to increase prices and if I do not do it now, it’s gone from me.”
A corrugator, on the other hand, viewed the increased competition as an opportunity to lower their containerboard prices.
“We are getting much better offers than in September or August. Lower prices and no limitations for volumes. Immediate shipments in two weeks. Looks like Europeans are getting more desperate [for volumes],” a Saudi Arabia-based corrugator said.
In the UAE, Indian containerboard suppliers had a small presence because local prices were more competitive than Indian prices, according to sources. Additionally, offers from the Far East were reported, but to UAE-based corrugators, European offers were more attractive.
In terms of international freight rates, one source said prices were increasing in October, further supported by Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI).
The WCI started to climb in October, following a prolonged decline over 17 consecutive weeks. The index gained roughly 10% to $1,822 on October 30 from $1,651 per 40-foot container on October 25, which was its lowest level since January 2024. But the WCI is still around 48% down from the most recent peak on June 12.
Meanwhile, land-based shipment costs remain fairly stable, according to sources. This is particularly important for GCC containerboard trade since most RCCM is transported by road within the region.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the non-oil private sector in Saudi Arabia experienced its strongest improvement for six months in September, when it recorded 57.8, up from 56.4 in August. This was still below Saudi Arabia’s 2025 peak of 60.5 in January.
The UAE’s PMI also increased in September to 54.2, up from 53.3 in August, marking its strongest level in seven months. July recorded UAE’s weakest PMI rate in over four years.
Meanwhile for Qatar, the PMI edged down slightly to 51.5 in September from 51.9 in August. Kuwait experienced a drop to 52.2 in September from 53.0 in August, with its highest level this year in April.
For third-quarter averages, Saudi Arabia led at 56.8, followed by the UAE at 53.5, Kuwait at 52.9 and Qatar recording the lowest average at 51.6.
Looking ahead, GCC-based producers are keeping their eyes on containerboard demand in Europe and European suppliers’ offers into the GCC region.
“If Europe remains weak and they keep offering low priced materials [into the region], it can spoil our high demand season for us,” a producer told Fastmarkets.
Meanwhile, the temperature in the GCC region is starting to cool with countries entering the winter season, which historically brings reduced consumption and slowness to the market.
Want to know more about the packaging market in the GCC? Stay up to date with Fastmarkets’ price data, market analysis and forecasting. Speak to a member of our team to find out more.
Learn how to monitor packaging prices using cost and price indices and understand the underlying cost drivers, from material cost to labor, energy and more. Examples include cartonboard, liquid container and paper bag.