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The Black Sea region, a cornerstone of global grain trade, enters 2026 with hope for a sense of stability following years of disruption caused by conflict and the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Russia and Ukraine, two of the world’s largest grain exporters, have recalibrated their production and logistics strategies, ensuring steady export flows despite lingering challenges. Here’s our 2026 outlook for the region.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative was a critical agreement brokered in July 2022 between Russia and Ukraine during their ongoing conflict. Its primary goal was to enable the safe export of grain, foodstuffs, and fertilizers from Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea while stabilizing global food prices and preventing a worsening food crisis, particularly in developing nations.
This initiative played a vital role in easing global grain shortages and curbing price spikes caused by the war’s blockade of Ukrainian ports, allowing millions of tons of grain to reach international markets. The agreement collapsed in July 2023 after Russia withdrew, reigniting fears of food insecurity worldwide.
The end of the Black Sea Grain Initiative fundamentally reshaped global grain logistics. After the corridor’s closure in 2023, Russia and Ukraine, two of the world’s top grain exporters, were forced to recalibrate trade flows.
After a short period of inactivity, Ukrainian forces took responsibility for the export/import flows into the country and introduced a humanitarian corridor. This is controlled only by Ukraine and allows a return to relatively normal export terms, with freight rates coming back to pre-war levels.
Additionally, most of the rail and truck routes along the Danube river, which played a key role at the beginning of the Russian invasion into Ukraine, have returned to almost a pre-war state, with little share among the total export flow.
Discover more about our Black Sea grains prices. We understand the challenges faced by the grains and oilseeds industry due to disruptions in production and logistics. As global demand for food, livestock and machinery continues to rise, these disruptions cause increased opacity and volatility in the market.
Russia produces two major wheat crops annually. The first is winter wheat (≈70% of output) which dominates in the European and southern regions, benefiting from longer growing seasons and higher yields. And then spring wheat (≈30% of output) is mainly grown in Siberia, the Urals, and Volga regions, where shorter seasons and variable moisture constrain yield potential.
Russia continues to expand its dominance in global grain markets. For 2026, wheat production is projected at 87 million tons, a 7% increase, supported by stable weather patterns and strong state investment in fertilizer and export infrastructure. Wheat area is forecast to decrease 5% but yields are projected to increase 11%, more than enough to offset the lower planted area.
Wheat area has fluctuated between 26 – 29 million hectares over the past eight years. Since 2020, Russia has been the largest wheat exporter representing 21% of world exports, five percentage points ahead of the EU, the second largest exporter. Exports represent more than half of Russia’s total production and demand will remain strong as global consumption increases.
Russia’s corn production is forecast at 14.1mn t. Corn area has hovered between 2.3 – 2.9 mn hectares. Similar to wheat, corn area is projected 7% lower but yields are 9% higher. Contrary to wheat, corn production is mainly consumed domestically for livestock. Russia is forecast to export 21pc, 3mn t, of its corn production, mainly to the Middle East and Asia. The weaker ruble has helped Russia’s overall competitiveness in both wheat and corn.