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The Black Sea region, a cornerstone of global grain trade, enters 2026 with hope for stability following years of disruption caused by conflict and the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Russia and Ukraine, two of the world’s largest grain exporters, have recalibrated their production and logistics strategies, ensuring steady export flows despite lingering challenges. Here’s our 2026 outlook for the region.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative was a critical agreement brokered in July 2022 between Russia and Ukraine during their ongoing conflict. Its primary goal was to enable the safe export of grain, foodstuffs, and fertilizers from Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea while stabilizing global food prices and preventing a worsening food crisis, particularly in developing nations.
This initiative played a vital role in easing global grain shortages and curbing price spikes caused by the war’s blockade of Ukrainian ports, allowing millions of tons of grain to reach international markets. The agreement collapsed in July 2023 after Russia withdrew, reigniting fears of food insecurity worldwide.
The end of the Black Sea Grain Initiative fundamentally reshaped global grain logistics. After the corridor’s closure in 2023, Russia and Ukraine, two of the world’s top grain exporters, were forced to recalibrate trade flows.
After a short period of inactivity, Ukrainian forces took responsibility for the export/import flows into the country and introduced a humanitarian corridor. This is controlled only by Ukraine and allows a return to relatively normal export terms, with freight rates coming back to pre-war levels.
Additionally, most of the rail and truck routes along the Danube river, which played a key role at the beginning of the Russian invasion into Ukraine, have returned to almost a pre-war state, with little share among the total export flow.
Discover more about our Black Sea grains prices. We understand the challenges faced by the grains and oilseeds industry due to disruptions in production and logistics. As global demand for food, livestock and machinery continues to rise, these disruptions cause increased opacity and volatility in the market.
Russia produces two major wheat crops annually. The first is winter wheat (≈70% of output) which dominates in the European and southern regions, benefiting from longer growing seasons and higher yields. And then spring wheat (≈30% of output) is mainly grown in Siberia, the Urals, and Volga regions, where shorter seasons and variable moisture constrain yield potential.
Russia continues to expand its dominance in global grain markets. For 2026, wheat production is projected at 87 million tons, a 7% increase, supported by stable weather patterns and strong state investment in fertilizer and export infrastructure. Wheat area is forecast to decrease 5% but yields are projected to increase 11%, more than enough to offset the lower planted area.
Wheat area has fluctuated between 26 – 29 million hectares (ha) over the past eight years. Since 2020, Russia has been the largest wheat exporter representing 21% of world exports, five percentage points ahead of the EU, the second largest exporter. Exports represent more than half of Russia’s total production and demand will remain strong as global consumption increases.
Russia’s corn production is forecast at 14.1mn t. Corn area has hovered between 2.3 – 2.9 mn hectares. Similar to wheat, corn area is projected 7% lower but yields are 9% higher. Contrary to wheat, corn production is mainly consumed domestically for livestock. Russia is forecast to export 21%, 3mn t, of its corn production, mainly to the Middle East and Asia. The weaker ruble has helped Russia’s overall competitiveness in both wheat and corn.
Ukraine’s grain supplies have steadily decreased over the past three years with a slight recovery forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year. Corn is Ukraine’s largest grain crop. Corn production is forecast to increase 19% to 32mn t for the 2025/26 year compared with 26.8mn t a year prior. Area planted is projected to increase 7% to 4.4mn ha, and with more normal weather, yields are forecast to increase 11% to 7.27t/ha.
Corn exports for the 2025/26 are forecast at 25.5 MMT, up 24% from the previous marketing year. The resumption of regular flows through Odesa and Pivdennyi ports, along with reduced volatility in land transport, supports a return to pre-2022 trade patterns. At the same time, current energy shortages along with continued attacks on the port and rail infrastructure have been badly affecting the loading pace and can result in a lower export potential.
Wheat production is forecast at 23mn t compared with 23.4mn t a year prior. Yields are forecast to decrease 7% but planted area has increased 6% to 5.5mn ha. Satellite NDVI data show a contrast between southern Ukraine, where vegetation health remains weak and similar to 2024 lows, and central and western oblasts, where greening conditions are closer to historical averages. As a result, the 2026 harvest is expected to maintain moderate regional disparities in yield and quality.
Wheat exports for MY 2025/26 are projected at 15.0 MMT, a 5 percent decline from the previous season, reflecting lower stocks and an uncompetitive export environment following the European Union’s reintroduction of tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), with wheat import from Ukraine into the bloc only set at 1.3 million tonnes for the financial year. Despite the policy headwinds, Ukraine continues to diversify its export markets, shipping significant volumes to Egypt and Algeria while reducing its dependence on the EU.
Regional conditions remain split between recovered central/western oblasts and war-affected southern zones where low NDVI indices and restricted input access continue to limit output. Although the Ukrainian government has increased support for grain storage and logistics facilities, production volumes are still about 27% below pre-invasion levels, given that up to 30% of the land is still occupied by Russia and more areas are not available for planting, given the closeness of the frontline. The ability of farmers to retain grain and time sales has improved their bargaining power, stabilizing domestic prices. However, this was also a factor that prevented the export price from dropping, limiting the exporter’s ability to price competitively.
By mid-2025, Ukraine’s grain export system had largely stabilized following two turbulent years of war-disrupted logistics. However, since November 2025, renewed attacks and combat in the region have meant that ports have not been able to operate normally, thus affecting the speed of recent shipments.
Around mid-2025, the reopening of major Black Sea ports, Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi, restored maritime trade to nearly 92% of total exports, reversing the temporary pivot to rail and Danube barge routes that had dominated in 2023 and end of 2025.
For the 2025/26 marketing year, initially, Ukraine’s logistics performance was expected to improve further amid relatively low freight costs and expanded export volumes, but the intensified attacks targeting ports and infrastructure have made it difficult to predict. However, trade sources have been hoping for better conditions by the March-April period, given that the country may be less dependent on the energy system with the arrival of springtime.
Ukrainian corn prices have not shown a big drop so far in the 2025/26 marketing year, but given the relatively low freight, along with other key origins, such as US and Brazil priced higher, it started to look more competitive by the end of 2025. With wheat, the price was not looking attractive in Asian markets for most of the season so far, given high competition from Argentina’s record wheat crop along with Australia’s significant crop, but it was still priced well for MENA markets.
According to the December 2025 report from Ukrainian customs, maritime routes have re-emerged as the dominant mode of export:
This normalization marks a major turnaround from 2023, when Danube ports handled nearly half of all exports. The shift reflects Ukraine’s success in re-establishing safe passage from Odesa and neighboring terminals under internationally monitored maritime insurance guarantees.
Rail remains a crucial backup, linking central Ukrainian elevators to western crossings at Izov, Chop, and Vadul-Siret, though its share of exports has fallen sharply. Freight data show rail costs dropping by roughly 25 percent year-over-year to $4.38 per mt per 100 miles, while truck transport remains the most expensive mode at about $15 per mt per 100 miles.
The Odesa port cluster, encompassing Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi, now handles roughly 85% of Ukraine’s seaborne grain exports, with throughput approaching pre-war capacity.
Meanwhile, Danube ports such as Izmail and Reni have seen their share fall from 45% to 4%, reflecting both the return of deep-sea trade and seasonal draft constraints. Despite lower use, these ports retain strategic value for smaller shipments and as emergency alternatives in the event of renewed Black Sea disruptions. At the same time, however, logistical costs to move the grains for shipment out of the ports are much higher when compared to the Black Sea, thus the usage of that location is very limited.
Freight rates for both rail and maritime transport declined across all routes in early 2025 and are expected to remain stable into 2026.
Lower transport costs have improved Ukraine’s export parity with the US Gulf and Brazil. The narrowing price spread between Ukrainian farm-gate and FOB values signals renewed competitiveness, particularly in Egypt, Spain, and Turkey, all key Black Sea buyers.
To caveat, while parity has generally improved over the years, this year saw a period of time when Ukrainian freight rates surpassed those of the US and Brazil for key destinations. That, coupled with significantly higher FOB prices, rendered Ukrainian grains highly uncompetitive, at times.
While the logistics outlook does appear positive overall, three structural risks remain for 2026:
Still, the Ukrainian government’s cooperation with European insurers and international shippers under the “Safe Grain Corridor” program provides a stabilizing framework, reducing volatility in export scheduling and costs.
The outlook for 2026 calls for continued reliance on Black Sea ports, with maritime flows projected to account for more than 93%, barring a major escalation in hostilities. With improved logistics, lower freight rates, and diversified routes, Ukraine is regaining its role as the relatively low-cost supplier of grain to Mediterranean and Asian markets. The country’s ability to maintain open Black Sea access through 2026 will remain the defining factor in global grain trade stability.
Global grain prices have normalized following the extreme volatility of 2021–2022, when supply disruptions from the Russia–Ukraine conflict and post-pandemic inflation pushed corn and wheat to multi-year highs. Since mid-2023, both commodities have entered a more stable phase characterized by moderate prices, narrowing spreads between origins, and increasing competition among Black Sea, US, and South American exporters.
As shown in the Global Corn FOB Prices chart, average corn prices declined from over $330/mt in mid-2022 to about $200–217/mt in late 2025. During that period, U.S. Gulf, Brazil, and Ukraine FOB values converged closely, reflecting intense competition and improved Ukrainian export access through the reopened Black Sea corridor.
Ukraine’s comeback is evident, after sharp price discounts during 2023 due to restricted port access and elevated freight, Ukraine’s corn FOB values now track within $10/mt of Brazil and the US Gulf, signaling restored parity and confidence in its export reliability.
The overall trend underscores a narrowing of global spreads, with all three origins competing within a 10–15/mt band through late 2025. Ukrainian corn’s recovery, supported by efficient Black Sea logistics and favorable yields, positions it strongly heading into MY 2025/26.
The Global Wheat FOB Prices chart shows a similar reversion to pre-war norms. After spiking to over $500/mt in mid-2022, global wheat prices fell sharply to $225–275/mt by late 2025, where they appear to have stabilized.
Russian wheat now consistently prices at the lowest global FOB levels, reflecting record harvests and aggressive export policies. Russia’s dominant role in supplying wheat to North Africa and the Middle East continues to pressure competitors.
Ukrainian wheat was previously discounted due to logistics risk. It has narrowed its gap with Russian offers. Improved maritime insurance coverage and steady port access have restored buyer confidence.
By late 2025, price spreads between origins have tightened to near pre-2020 levels, marking a significant normalization of trade flows. The Black Sea’s combined market share has rebounded to pre-war dominance, with Russia and Ukraine jointly accounting for over 27% of global wheat exports.
As the 2026 marketing year begins, the competitiveness outlook favors Black Sea exporters. The reactivation of Odesa and Pivdennyi ports has reduced Ukrainian FOB volatility, bringing stability to forward contracting. Russia’s record output and Ukraine’s strong corn recovery are maintaining exportable surpluses at competitive prices.
The global grain market is entering a post-crisis normalization phase. Prices are stable but unlikely to fall much further, as freight and input costs provide a floor near current levels. The Black Sea’s regained reliability will be a defining feature of trade in 2026 shaping benchmark values and re-establishing the region’s role as the anchor of global grain pricing.
The regional grain trade remains vulnerable to policy shifts, but the effect is limited. Russia’s export taxes were seen at low levels, while trade has already found ways to work normally despite the sanctions-linked restrictions on the banks or shipments, with huge export volumes confirming that. In the EU, political friction persists over Ukrainian grain inflows, and export quotas have been reintroduced.
Meanwhile, on both sides of the conflict, there is an increased amount of direct attacks on port facilities, with more Russian attacks seen on the Ukrainian ports in recent months.
The Black Sea grain market enters 2026 in a period of disruption, but also relative stability after several years of disruption. Russia and Ukraine have adapted to new conditions with strong harvests, improved logistics, and restored export confidence.
Production is expected to stay high with combined corn and wheat output above 156 million tons. Russia continues to lead in wheat, while Ukraine’s corn recovery and steady wheat yields show resilience despite regional challenges.
Most Ukrainian exports now move through reopened ports at Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi.
Global wheat and corn prices have leveled off near $230 and $215 per ton, respectively. Price gaps between origins have narrowed, showing a return to normal market competition.
While high risks remain from policy changes or renewed conflict, the region is more self-reliant and better prepared to maintain export flows. In 2026 the Black Sea can be expected to remain the key source of competitively priced grain, helping stabilize global supply and prices for another year, but the conflict continues to present high risks.
This piece has been update on 12th January, with some contributions from senior price reporter, Masha Belikova.