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Brazil’s corn availability is expected to reach 124.2 million tonnes in 2022, 22.8% above last year’s 101.1 million tonnes, local consultancy Safras & Mercado stated late Monday April 4.
Exports are expected to reach 36 million tonnes, up 73.9% from last year’s total of 20.7 million.
Imports are forecast at 1.8 million tonnes, 40% below the 2021 total of 3 million tonnes.
Domestic demand is expected at 114.5 million tonnes in 2022, 11.7% above last year’s 96.9 million tonnes.
Final stocks are expected to reach 9.6 million tonnes in 2022, 128.5% above last year’s 4.2 million tonnes.
The country’s total corn crop output is expected to reach 118.1 million tonnes in 2021-2022, up 29.2% from the prior crop year’s 91.4 million tonnes and 115,678 tonnes higher than forecast a month ago, the consultancy forecast showed on Friday, April 1.
Export inspections of US corn were down 5.3% in the week ending March 31, data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) showed on Monday.
Weekly inspections came in at 1.53 million tonnes, within analysts’ expectations that ranged between 1.35-1.6 million tonnes.
Among the largest destinations were China (458,671 tonnes), Mexico (267,892 tonnes), Japan (180,021 tonnes), Saudi Arabia (156,991 tonnes), South Korea (122,214 tonnes), and the Dominican Republic (71,173 tonnes).
US Gulf ports inspected 1.106 million tonnes, the Pacific Northwest handled 253,688 tonnes, the interior 152,062 tonnes, and the Atlantic 16,555 tonnes.
Weekly inspections lifted total inspections to date to 30.6 million tonnes, down 15% year-on-year.
Ukraine’s grain, oilseed and oil exports dropped significantly in March, after ports were blocked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine February 24, official data showed over the weekend, but the volumes appeared to be much higher than market expectations.
According to the Ukraine economy ministry, Ukraine exported 1.07 million tonnes of corn as of March 29, which is a 72% drop compared to February, while wheat exports reached 306,530 tonnes, a 75% drop versus February.
However, market sources said the volumes seemed exaggerated, given that currently export is possible only through rail borders and barges from small ports in Reni and Izmail.
They might possibly include some volumes that were registered in the days prior to the Invasion but were only processed in March, they suggested.
“I believe it’s not physical exports, but the volume that the company managed to get a license for,” a trader based in Ukraine told Fastmarkets Agricensus.
“In fact, the amount a company has licensed and the actual amount of exports can differ by more than 80 times,” the trader added.
All the export routes are fraught with many other of other difficulties, such as lack of transport on the European side of the border, lack of storage capacity on both sides, transportation costs, and a lack of vessels in the Reni and Izmail, as many owners are not keen to enter the Black Sea amid high risks.
Keep up to date with the corn market and trends shaping the agricultural landscape, visit our dedicated corn market page.