Wasde: US corn stocks to rise on exports slide, Ukraine revised higher

US ending stockpile estimate for 2023-24 higher than the 56.4 million tonnes previously projected by analysts surveyed by Fastmarkets Agriculture

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has boosted its 2023-24 US beginning and ending stock estimates while cutting export projections and leaving production estimates unchanged at a record high.

Beginning stockpiles of the 2023-24 crop year are expected to total 1.452 billion bushels (36.9 million tonnes), which is 35 million bushels higher than projected in May, while ending stocks are seen at 2.257 billion bushels, which is also 35 million bushels higher than last month’s estimate, according to the June update to the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) data.

The ending stockpile estimate for 2023-24 is higher than the 2.2 billion bushels (56.4 million tonnes) projected by analysts surveyed by Fastmarkets Agriculture before the release of the report.

US corn output is expected to rise to an all-time high of 15.265 billion bushels (387.7 million tonnes) in 2023-24, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate and 11.2% higher than 13.73 billion bushels projected for 2022-23.

Market participants polled by Fastmarkets before the release expected that the USDA would forecast 2023-24 production at 15.256 billion bushels (387.5 million tonnes).

”Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April, export inspection data for the month of May, and expectations of competition from Brazil in the coming months,” the report said.

US exports are projected to total 1.725 billion bushels (52.7 million tonnes) in 2022-23, down 2.8% from 1.775 billion bushels projected in May.

The 2023-24 export estimate was unchanged from last month at 2.1 billion bushes (52.7 million tonnes).

Global production

The USDA projects left the 2023-24 production forecast at a record 1.219 billion tonnes, up from 1.151 billion tonnes in 2022/23.

The 2022-23 production estimate was increased by 530,000 tonnes.

“This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month,” the report said.

Ending stocks for 2023-24 were projected at 313.98 million tonnes, up from 1.1 million tonnes from the May report, while 2022-23 ending stocks were seen at 297.55 million tonnes, up 140,000 tonnes.

Analysts projected that the USDA would estimate global ending stocks at 313 million tonnes in 2023-24 and 297 million tonnes in 2022-23.

“Corn production is raised for Ukraine, reflecting higher area based on data reported by the government,” according to the report.

Ukraine is expected to produce 24.5 million tonnes of corn in 2023-24, which is 3.5 million tonnes higher than what was estimated in the May Wasde.

The USDA reduced 2022-23 corn production projections for drought-stricken Argentina while bolstering them for neighboring Brazil.

Argentina’s corn 2022-23 output forecast was slashed by 2 million tonnes to 35 million tonnes, while the department kept its 2023-24 production estimate at 54 million tonnes.

Analysts surveyed before the report expected the USDA to reduce the 2022-23 Argentina output estimate by 1 million tonnes from May to 36 million tonnes.

The Brazilian corn output for 2022-23 was increased by 2 million tonnes to 132 million tonnes, while the production forecast for 2023-24 was left unchanged at 129 million tonnes.

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