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Tungsten market participants are eyeing potential further changes to supply chain dynamics considering the growing shift in the US toward military-focused spending, amid reports that the Pentagon plans to spend up to $1 billion on critical minerals stockpiling, sources have told Fastmarkets. It was reported earlier in October that the Pentagon – the headquarters of the US military establishment – was planning to spend as much as $1 billion on critical minerals and tungsten was among the materials that the US Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) was said to have been looking at purchasing.
“The DLA has also issued public Requests for Information indicating potential interest in securing approximately 1,700 tonnes of tungsten ores and concentrates – a clear signal of how seriously the US government is now treating tungsten supply security,” Oliver Friesen, chief executive of UK-headquartered, US-focused tungsten explorer-developer Guardian Metal Resources, told Fastmarkets.
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In recent weeks, it has also been reported that the US has told suppliers to quadruple their missile production, and on October 20, the White House further announced a framework “for securing of supply in the mining and processing of critical minerals and rare earths” with Australia – also a tungsten-producing country.
Indeed, tungsten, which is ranked number nine among the US government’s top 10 mineral commodities in order of the estimated probability-weighted effect of supply disruptions on the country’s economy, has been garnering significant attention from the US.
“Defense spending and how that could impact the market for tungsten is intriguing,” a supply-side source outside China said.
“The US government and the [recently renamed] Department of War are very interested and involved in securing raw materials and minerals for efforts in protecting or assisting with the programs to support supply of these different projects.”
Because trade tensions have continued between the US and China, the drive to reduce reliance on Chinese supply has been gathering steam, with the latest spending news presenting opportunities for new projects, especially on US soil.
“There is a significant focus on ‘re-shoring’ tungsten and other materials that are leaving the US borders and not necessarily returning,” the supply-side source outside China said.
“Sometimes these materials do return to the US as imports like tungsten oxide or sodium tungstate as examples. But, a fair amount of the time, these materials do not return. To me, that is a way to focus a supply chain without majorly disrupting the current market situation for tungsten specifically.”
New tungsten projects have also already begun emerging within the US – for example, Guardian Metal Resources’ Pilot Mountain and Tempiute projects in the US State of Nevada; Patriot Critical Minerals’ MEGA deposit, also in Nevada; and American Tungsten’s IMA mine in the US State of Idaho.
For Patriot Critical Minerals, the project itself is already geared toward alignment with defense procurement policies, CEO Brodie Sutherland told Fastmarkets.
“The MEGA Tungsten Project’s strategic location in northeastern Elko County, Nevada – on the eastern flank of the Delano Mountains, about 25 miles north of Montello – further enhances its appeal as a domestic critical minerals asset, especially amid the DLA’s $1 billion push,” Sutherland said.
“Adding to its defense-oriented positioning, the MEGA site is within 100 miles of the Utah Test and Training Range, the expansive bombing test airfield complex in western Utah. This proximity – about 80-90 miles north-east across the Nevada-Utah border – positions MEGA as a potential ‘just-in-time’ supplier for live-fire exercises, munitions research and development and tungsten-dependent applications like penetrators tested there.”
According to Sutherland, at a time when the US has heightened its national security priorities, this could accelerate permitting, grants, or offtake agreements under the Defense Production Act, which states that the US president be given “a range of authorities to influence domestic industry in the interest of national defense.”
Similarly, at Guardian Metal Resources, there is recognition of the role that defense procurement will play in the development of tungsten projects outside China and especially within the US.
“We’ve seen growing engagement this year from the US DLA and other federal entities as part of a broader effort to strengthen domestic critical-mineral supply chains,” Friesen told Fastmarkets.
“Tungsten naturally sits within that conversation, given its essential role in defense, aerospace and energy technologies, pared with the absence of any current US primary production.”
In turn, developments like the planned defense spending are a key opportunity to diversify sources of material, Friesen suggested.
“Any program that supports reliable, transparent and diversified sources of critical minerals would be a significant positive for the tungsten market outside of China,” he said.
“It helps to create the long-term certainty that developers like Guardian Metals need to advance projects such as Pilot Mountain and Tempiute.”
Elsewhere, Canada-based explorer-developer Allied Critical Metals has been progressing the Borralha and Vila Verde projects in Portugal, and in July this year, it launched Allied USA, a subsidiary based in Nashville, in the US State of Tennessee, focused on importing, marketing and distribution of premium tungsten products across various sectors.
Meanwhile, more mature market participants such as Almonty have also made strides, with the company stating in September that its flagship Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea had entered its phase I production preparation stage.
The impetus to accelerate new projects within the US has also been heightened by shrinking desire within China to export at all, sources have suggested, with one market participant saying they had begun pulling back from the US as far back as 2022.
“We have been strategically retreating from the US market since 2022 and after the new [export] restrictions this February, we gave up the US market entirely. Now we are focusing more on the Asian and European markets,” the market participant said.
And a tungsten trader in China further suggested that the general mood among tungsten sellers in the country was one of ambivalence toward the export market.
“We believe that the attitude that main Chinese tungsten producers are currently adopting is one of not being enthusiastic, but also not being outright resistant, meaning they do not actively pursue exports,” the trader in China said.
“But there are certain old customers who have placed orders already. For instance, if they have long-term orders, those orders are still on the way to be fulfilled as long as they have the licenses,” the trader in China added.
For the long term, sources have said, China is looking to change its export structure of tungsten products, aiming to move away from exporting upstream to midstream products and toward midstream to downstream products.
According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), China accounted for 27% of US imports of tungsten ores, concentrates and other forms between 2020 and 2023.
Under the export controls implemented by China in February, however, movement of various tungsten products out of the country has slowed considerably.
For example, globally, according to data from Global Trade Tracker, exports of ammonium paratungstate (APT) from China, which falls under the controls, came to 103 tonnes in January 2025, then 20 tonnes in February when the controls were announced and dropped to zero in March, April and May, before climbing back to 40 tonnes in June and 41 tonnes in July.
In June, some companies reportedly received export licenses and the export of some tungsten products increased slightly.
The figure was 9 tonnes in August and 10 tonnes in September, according to the Global Trade Tracker data; in 2024, on the other hand, APT exports from China came to 283 tonnes in the first half and 500 tonnes in the second half.
Moreover, China’s export restrictions on tungsten products and the US push to re-shore, or at least “friend-shore,” production through major governmental funding, have become part of a continuing race to secure supply and solidify competitive positions.
For the time being, China has remained ahead in this race, given its supply dominance, sources have suggested.
“China’s tungsten smelting technology does have an edge. But that does not mean other countries cannot do it – it’s just that, for now, before their production lines are fully up and running, China’s advantage is very clear,” a second trader in China said.
“To put it simply, building a factory might take a year, but getting everything connected and operating smoothly would take at least another one or two years. So overall, you’re looking at a two- to three-year gap to really catch up.”
Further upstream, even as more projects emerge and progress through development, supported by fast-tracking, especially in the US, the rest of the world has still been operating at a lag.
“When it comes to supporting new projects, of course that would mitigate the supply risk in the medium term. But the industry needs a much more immediate and drastic solution ahead of new projects coming online,” a tungsten trader outside China said.
“The global industry probably cannot wait for the years it would take to permit, drill, conduct feasibility studies and construct new mines, process plants and APT plants. China, whether the rest of the world likes it or not, holds the cards.”
But the planned spending is at least expected to act as a spur, even beyond the defense sector, Friesen suggested.
“Ultimately, initiatives of this kind underscore the growing recognition in Washington that secure access to materials like tungsten is fundamental to both economic competitiveness and national security,” he said.
“Guardian will continue to align our Nevada-based tungsten projects to best support these broader objectives, while maintaining our focus on building strong commercial relationships with the downstream tungsten industry across the US.”
And the government support for tungsten projects prompted by defense priorities could also benefit the wider supply chain, the supply-side source outside China suggested.
“I feel the government’s support of some primary projects, [such as] mining projects, to get new sources developed, is also a way to support the tungsten industry without fully causing additional tightening for other sectors,” the supply-side source outside China said.
The Pentagon’s planned procurement of critical minerals also sits alongside other related initiatives emerging from the US.
For example, under the US National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement (DFARS) has set out restrictions to be placed in contracts for the acquisition of certain magnets, tantalum and tungsten starting from January 1, 2027.
As per the DFARS instructions, the covered material includes samarium-cobalt magnets; neodymium-iron-boron magnets; tantalum metals and alloys; tungsten metal powder; and tungsten heavy alloy or any finished or semi-finished component containing tungsten heavy alloy.
The instructions state that from January 1, 2027, contractors “shall not deliver under this contract any covered material mined, refined, separated, melted, or produced in any covered country, or any end item, manufactured in any covered country, that contains a covered material.”
The covered countries include China, Iran, North Korea and Russia.
“An interesting deadline will be January 2027, as the NDAA requirements will kick in,” a sell-side source outside China said. “Defense manufacturers [will have to] start to engage with their tungsten supply chain to understand the origin of raw materials and ability to be NDAA compliant.”
The news of the Pentagon’s spending plans may have generated optimism in terms of demand implications, as well as the potential for support for new projects, but questions remain over how significant it will be for tungsten specifically, some sources have said.
“I would question being how much more tungsten is required, depending on applications,” the sell-side source outside China said.
“I understood the US will spend the most money on renewal and expansion of naval and air defense systems, including fighter jets, while rebuilding ammunition stock.”
Furthermore, there were also doubts over the potentially long timeframes involved, the sell-side source outside China suggested.
“Personally, I do not feel the DLA will be quick,” the sell-side source outside China said. “[I also think] the DLA – at least for tungsten – will face critics from the industrial base that it [should] not start to compete in what is already a very tightly supplied market. On the other hand, speaking to DLA leadership, their mandate is not to build an ‘industry-oriented strategic stockpile’.”
Furthermore, there were also suggestions that the planned spending may not be transformative for the tungsten supply chain over the longer term.
“The Pentagon looking at tungsten is not new; this has been [likely] for a while now. For the share of the $1 billion that would be allocated to tungsten, whichever percentage that is, I doubt it will be a substantial number to have any lasting impact on tungsten,” the trader outside China said.
Eventually, other market developments beyond increased spending will be needed to rebalance the tungsten market, according to the trader outside China.
“Some combination of export control relaxation, demand destruction, material substitution, manufacturing slowdown will need to take place until such time when either a trade deal is reached or the supply and demand misbalance outside China finds its equilibrium,” the trader said.
Within China itself, tungsten prices have resumed their upward trend following the news of the US stockpiling plans.
As the world’s largest producer and exporter, with about 80% of global tungsten supply, dynamics and activity in China have continued to act as a major driver for the international tungsten market, while the supply control policies and export regulations have influenced international sentiment, a sell-side source in China said.
For example, Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for tungsten APT 88.5% WO3 min, fob main ports China was $620-670 per mtu WO3 on Wednesday October 22, up a further 4.03% from $600-640 per mtu WO3 the week before.
Following the market’s return to activity after the Golden Week holiday (October 1-8), prices had jumped by 8.77%, to $600-640 per mtu WO3 on October 15, compared with $560-580 per mtu WO3 on September 24, the last assessment before the holiday.
The resumption of the rally after the holiday was said to have been caused not only by the tightened supply of raw materials, but also the growing tensions around the supply of critical materials between China and the US, which was said to have triggered a rush among traders to stock materials, according to the second trader in China.
Upstream, Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for tungsten concentrate 65% WO3, in-whs China climbed again on October 22, to 271,000-280,000 yuan ($38,053-39,317) per tonne, up by 1.66% from 267,000-275,000 yuan per tonne on October 15.
Before that, the price had seen declines over the three consecutive weeks before the Golden Week holiday and also the first week back, dipping from 280,000-290,000 yuan per tonne on September 10, to 270,000-275,000 yuan per tonne on September 24, the final assessment before the break.
Elsewhere in the supply chain, China’s recently announced export controls on rare earths technologies and related items have had something of a ripple effect, especially on ferro-tungsten exports, sources have suggested.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for ferro-tungsten export, min 75% fob China was at $85-87 per kg W on October 22, up from $82.50-85 per kg W the week before.
“Ferro-tungsten was not listed as one of the restricted export products by the Chinese government, but we have seen that the Chinese customs have intensified physical inspection during ferro-tungsten cargo transit [in recent days], especially after China expanded its rare earth restrictions,” the second trader in China said.
Likewise, prices outside China have continued to be strong, with sources highlighting the stymied availability of material as a key driver.
For example, Fastmarkets’ twice weekly price assessment for ferro-tungsten basis 75% W, in-whs dup Rotterdam was $87-88.50 per kg W on October 22, compared with $86-89.50 per kg W on October 17.
And APT prices have also continued to rise on a CIF Rotterdam and Baltimore basis, largely driven by the continuing influence of China’s export controls on certain tungsten products.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for tungsten APT 88.5% WO3 min cif Rotterdam and Baltimore duty-free was $600-685 per mtu WO3, compared with $600-670 per mtu WO3 the week before.
“The price out of China, if you can get your hands on material and if you can export it, is [very high],” a second tungsten trader outside China said.
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