US wheat stocks output projected to be higher while global stocks lower

A report by the USDA forecasts an increase in US ending stocks for 2024/25 to 769 million bushels, alongside a slight decrease in global stockpile estimates

The USDA’s influential World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for June is forecast to bolster its domestic 2024-25 crop-ending stocks and production projections while slightly lowering global stockpile estimates, according to analysts polled by Fastmarkets.

US ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 769 million bushels (20.93 million tonnes), up 3 million bushels (bu) from 766 million bu (20.85 million tonnes) in the May report, the average of eight analyst estimates showed.

Analysts responded with a wide range of US ending-stock estimates, from 741 million bushels (20.17 million tonnes) at the low end to as high as 794 million bu (21.61 million tonnes).

Analysts also revisited their ending stocks outlook for the 2023/24 crop, with the total expected wheat crop at 687 million bu (18.7 million tonnes), down by 1 million bushels from 688 million bu (18.72 million tonnes) projected in the May WASDE report.

The US wheat production in 2024-25 is anticipated to total 1.875 billion bu (51 million tonnes), which is 17 million bu higher than the 1.858 billion bu (50.6 million tonnes) projected in the May WASDE report.

Production in the new crop year is expected to be 3.5% higher than the 1,812 billion bu (49.3 million tonnes) forecast for 2023-24 in the May WASDE.

Hard red winter (HRW) production in 2024/25 is projected at 712 million bu (19.38 million tonnes), up by 7 million bu from 705 million bu (19.19 million tonnes) projected in the May WASDE report, while soft red winter (SRW) output is expected to total 351 million bu (9.55 million tonnes), up by 7 million bu from 344 million (9.36 million tonnes) last month.

White wheat output is expected to total 229 million bu (6.23 million tonnes) in the new crop year, unchanged from the May WASDE report.

All winter wheat is expected to total 1.298 billion bu (35.3 million tonnes), up from 1.278 billion bu (34.8 million tonnes) forecast last month. 

Global outlook

Global ending stocks in 2024/25 are expected to total 250 million tonnes, down by 3.6 million tonnes from the forecast in the May WASDE report, according to an average of four analyst estimates.

Analysts expect 2023/24 crop year ending stocks will total 257.5 million tonnes, down by 300,000 tonnes from the May WASDE report.

Market participants will be focusing on Russian output projections after a late frost, followed by dry, hot weather in key growing regions led local agencies to lower 2024/25 production forecasts. 

The USDA projected that Russian production would total 88 million tonnes, exceeding the 79.5-81 million tonnes forecast by local agencies.

Ukrainian wheat projections might also be lowered due to weather issues, with some areas of the country suffering from the driest May, while others received adequate amounts of rain. 

The USDA estimated 2024/25 Ukrainian production at 21 million tonnes, versus the 19-20 million tonnes by local agencies.

The current USDA forecast for Australia is 29 million tonnes, which is identical to the country’s agriculture ministry Abares forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year, although Abares noted that weather developments in next few months may impact the forecast. 

The USDA will release its June 2024 WASDE report at 12pm Eastern Time on Wednesday June 12.

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