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In its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its US corn yield projection for the 2025/26 crop year (the crop currently being harvested in the fall of 2025) from 181.0 bushels per acre in July to 188.8 bushels per acre.
Additionally, the USDA increased its US harvested area estimate from 86.8 million acres to 88.7 million acres. The September WASDE report the following month reduced the corn yield estimate down to 186.7 bushels per acre, but increased harvested area to 90 million acres, increasing total production by 72 million bushels over the August estimate. A US average 186.7 bushels per harvested acre would be a record yield, eclipsing the previous high of 176.6 bushels per acre set in crop year 2017.
Every year, in the monthly WASDE report up to the July WASDE report, yield estimates for the upcoming marketing year are based on long-term trend yields. Beginning with the August report, yield estimates are given more attention and are based on farmer reported yield estimates, the USDA objective yield survey, which uses physical sampling of plant counts and ear development by USDA staff, and satellite imagery, specifically the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The difference in estimation method can cause large jumps in yields and production as it did this year.
Compounding the estimated record yield’s impact on the US corn balance sheet, acreage is also estimated to be historically high this crop year. Estimated planted area of 98.7 million acres is the highest level since 1936. Harvested acreage, estimated at 90 million acres is the highest level since 1931 and the 4th highest level ever over the last 100 years.
While the September WASDE yield and acreage estimates rely on a significant amount of data and years of estimation method refinement by the agency, they always contain some forecast error. Over the last 35 years, the September yield forecast has shown little statistical bias (a systematic under- or over-estimation) but has demonstrated significant variance compared to final estimates. The forecasted yield has exceeded the actual yield by as much as 12 bushels per acre (in 1993, the year of extensive flooding in the Midwest).
In 2004, on the other hand, the September forecast undershot the actual yield by 11 bushels per acre. Near perfect planting and growing conditions in 2004 led to a US average yield of 160.3 bushels per acre, almost 21 bushels per acre higher than the previous record set in 1994. Based on the standard deviation over the last 35 years, it is expected that there is a 68% chance that the final corn yield for 2025/26 will fall between 181.39 bushels per acre (approximately the pre-August yield estimate) and 192 bushels per acre, although the upside to the current yield estimate is probably more limited than the downside.
Corn is the second most cultivated crop in the world behind wheat. Over 50.6 billion bushels of corn are expected to be produced globally in the 2025 crop year on 518 million harvested acres. Approximately 32 billion bushels of corn will be fed to livestock with an additional 19 billion bushels going to food, seed, and industrial use (FSI). FSI includes products such as starch, high fructose corn syrup, and fuel, beverage, and industrial ethanol. About 8 billion bushels of corn are traded internationally each year. Note that, from a global perspective, trade is counted twice here as it appears on both sides of the balance.
Global growth in meat consumption and production will continue to support feed demand for corn as populations continue to grow and economic growth pushes a larger portion of the global population into the middle class. More economic resources tend to increase per capita meat consumption up to a point. The most productive and developed economies in the world such as the US and EU have much slower growth in overall meat consumption, with most growth in recent years driven by Asia and South America.
Different regional feeding systems result in different corn feeding intensity between countries with similar per capita meat consumption. For example, even though Brazil produces approximately 11% of the world’s meat (19% of beef), it only consumes 8% of global feed corn because, unlike the US, Brazilian cattle are usually not fattened in concentrated feed lots and instead are more likely to be grass finished. The US, on the other hand, where concentrated feed rations are the norm for all species, accounts for 19% of global corn feed demand supporting 16% of global meat production.