Aluminium price forecast

The US aluminium industry is experiencing challenges related to tariffs, which have contributed to higher prices and premiums, raising questions about potential impacts on demand. Alcoa’s CEO has noted that sustained high prices could affect the domestic market. While trade agreements might provide some relief, analysts expect premiums to remain elevated in the near term. However, aluminum demand is projected to grow over the long term, supported by the energy transition and clean energy projects. To meet this demand, the industry will need to increase production, restart idle smelters and address factors such as electricity costs and global competition.

The MB-AL-0408 aluminium low-carbon differential P1020A, cif Mexico was published at 3:02pm London time on May 20 instead of the scheduled time of 3-4pm on May 27. The erroneous price has been removed from Fastmarkets’ pricing database. The price will next be published on May 27 at its usual time. This price is a part of the Fastmarkets […]

The US trade roller coaster ride seems to be flattening, with signs of potential moderation and stability. It appears increasingly likely that our original expectation that the US Trump administration would primarily use the threat of tariffs as a negotiating strategy will be correct. While we do not expect to the US tariff position return to pre-2025 levels, we believe the overall US tariff burden is more likely to settle at around 10-30% globally rather than the elevated rates of 50-100% that seemed possible in recent weeks.