Aluminium

The recent doubling of Section 232 tariffs to 50%, announced by President Trump, has introduced significant uncertainty to the US steel market, with traders reporting disruptions to imports, paused domestic mill quotes and concerns over potential price increases amid modest demand. Industry participants are now assessing how the additional costs will be absorbed across the supply chain.

Mexico’s strategic role in automotive nearshoring is fueling demand for recycled aluminium, with investment in scrap-intensive sectors boosting its non-ferrous secondary markets. Despite tariff uncertainties, USMCA compliance and EV production growth continue to attract global manufacturers.

A US court has struck down key reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant unlimited tariff authority. While markets reacted positively, Section 232 duties on steel and aluminium remain in effect, prompting continued uncertainty and a likely appeal by the Trump administration.

Five key takeaways from our CIPS webinar.

The US aluminium industry is experiencing challenges related to tariffs, which have contributed to higher prices and premiums, raising questions about potential impacts on demand. Alcoa’s CEO has noted that sustained high prices could affect the domestic market. While trade agreements might provide some relief, analysts expect premiums to remain elevated in the near term. However, aluminum demand is projected to grow over the long term, supported by the energy transition and clean energy projects. To meet this demand, the industry will need to increase production, restart idle smelters and address factors such as electricity costs and global competition.

The US trade roller coaster ride seems to be flattening, with signs of potential moderation and stability. It appears increasingly likely that our original expectation that the US Trump administration would primarily use the threat of tariffs as a negotiating strategy will be correct. While we do not expect to the US tariff position return to pre-2025 levels, we believe the overall US tariff burden is more likely to settle at around 10-30% globally rather than the elevated rates of 50-100% that seemed possible in recent weeks.