MethodologyContact usSupportLogin
Key takeaways:
“It is unfortunate timing because it’s juicing up already juiced up markets… If you wanted to build an economical stockpile over time, you would not go about it like this,” Christopher Ecclestone, mining strategist at Hallgarten Co, told Fastmarkets.
But the move could support planned critical mineral projects outside China, where midstream ex-China consumption is still often in the nascent stage, according to market participants, particularly for niche products such as technology metals and rare earths.
The so-named Project Vault plans to establish a US strategic minerals reserve via a public-private partnership backed by a loan of up to $10 billion from the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) and $2 billion from private industry, according to EXIM and US President Donald Trump’s announcements on Monday February 2.
The civilian-industry stockpile is distinct from the defense stockpiles coordinated by the US Defense Logistics Agency. That military stockpiling has already strained some markets, including indium, for which the agency has launched a stockpiling request to source up to 403 tonnes of the metal.
The funding will be used to acquire and stockpile minerals for US auto and technology manufacturers as well as others, Trump said.
The announcements did not provide a full list of the metals expected to be stockpiled, but the US, via the United States Geological Survey (USGS), classifies 60 metals and minerals as critical, including many whose global production China dominates and for which the country has in recent years introduced export controls.
Rattled by the wave of export controls in the first half of 2025 covering some medium and heavy rare earths as well as the rare earth permanent magnets that contain them, and bismuth, tellurium, molybdenum and tungsten, the US has accelerated its drive to secure supply chains, including by providing extensive support for new producers outside China.
In a separate development this week, senior Democrats from the Senate and House of Representatives are probing the federal government’s investment spree in critical mineral projects, according to a letter to officials on Monday.
Market participants expressed concern that the stockpile could place existing consumers, particularly outside the US including in the EU, in competition with a new $12 billion government-backed buyer.
Those fears are accentuated by the already very tight supply situation in several of the markets expected to be under consideration for stockpiling, including gallium and germanium, which have been under export controls since 2023, and cobalt, whose supply has been constrained by export restrictions on intermediate products from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Fastmarkets assessed the price for cobalt alloy grade, in-whs Rotterdam at $28.30-29.50 per lb on Tuesday, flat day on day, but more than twice the $12.50-14.15 per lb assessed in the same session a year earlier.
Fastmarkets most recently assessed the price of gallium 99.99% Ga min, in-whs Rotterdam at $1,450-1,500 per kg on January 30, flat from the previous session on January 28, but far higher than gallium 99.99% Ga min, in-whs China, which was assessed at 1,800-1,900 yuan ($259-273) per kg on January 30.
“I believe [consumers] will have to compete with the US Government, especially [in Europe] this will tighten the market,” a European speciality metal trader said.
The new initiative does not indicate the specifications for cobalt, whether it is feedstock such as cobalt hydroxide or metal of different grades.
Two European traders agreed that extra demand from stockpiling could strain the supply-demand balance for alloy-grade cobalt if it is included in the stockpile requests. This is due to a lack of new supply coming online and a lengthy approval process that may take eight to 10 years, one trader noted.
Alloy-grade cobalt is used for high-temperature alloys for engine parts and includes several brands from Japan, Norway or Canada. It is primarily a by-product of mining nickel, which has been in oversupply in recent years.
Market participants viewed the stockpile as a likely boon to new producers. The US has historically been a rather small importer of many of the metals it classifies as critical, importing more midstream products. For example, in 2024 the US imported some 11 tonnes of gallium metal compared with 180 tonnes of gallium arsenide wafer
“Surprisingly, they’re paying little attention to the downstream. They’re sort of thinking it looks after itself. I do not think that’s true,” Ecclestone said.
Historically, rare earth consumers have been in a stronger market position than suppliers. Questions remain about the build-out of downstream consumption. The US is a relatively small importer of high-value rare earth materials. Japan is the only large consumer of rare earth products outside China followed by South Korea. Europe is the largest export market in the world for finished rare earth permanent magnets.
The Vault initiative could boost industrialization in US-aligned countries, according to a market source from an upcoming refinery project in the DRC.
“The US EXIM Bank’s $10 billion commitment to Project Vault is signaling a move toward the long overdue rebalancing of access to critical minerals,” Eddy Kioni, founder and chief executive officer of Buenassa, a metal trader developing a copper-cobalt refinery in the DRC, told Fastmarkets.
A potential integration of Congolese refining into the new framework could help establish a transparent, reliable supply chain that supports the American manufacturing renaissance and its defense industrial base while driving industrialization in the DRC, according to Kioni.
India’s metals moment: Can the world’s biggest emerging market meet its critical minerals potential? Listen to the Fast Forward podcast to find out more.