Argentina’s soybean output forecasts may be cut further on low yields

Reports by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange's (Bage) forecast the country's soybean crop to decline

Argentina’s soybean output estimates could be reduced once again if the yields continue to land below projections, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange’s (Bage) weekly report said on Thursday, April 27.

Last week, Bage slashed its estimates for the country´s soybean crop to 22.5 million tonnes from the previous projection of 25 million tonnes.

The soybean harvest advanced to 28.5% of the 16.3 million hectares planted area in the week ending April 26, up 11.5 percentage points from the prior week.

The harvested area is 17.8 percentage points lower than at this time last year and 25.5 lower than the five-year average.

The average yield is 15.9 quintals per hectare, while last year´s yield was 28 quintals per hectare.

Crop conditions declined slightly during the reported week.

Areas in good-to-excellent condition remain at 3% of the total crop area, while areas in fair condition decreased by one percentage point to 32%.

Areas rated in poor-to-very poor condition rose by one percentage point to 65%.

Corn yield

Corn harvest advanced 2.8 percentage points to 17.5% of the 7.1 million ha area in the week, below the 24.6% seen during the same period last year and the 28,8% five-year average.

The national average yield increased to 43 quintals per hectare from the prior week´s 41.1 quintals per hectare but remains far below expectations, according to Bage.

Last crop year, the average yield was 69 quintals per hectare.

Areas in good-to-excellent condition dropped one percentage point to 5%, while areas considered poor-to-very poor declined by two percentage points to 52%.

Areas rated as average were up by three points to 43%.

The area considered dry is 49% of the total, a four-point weekly advance.

Production estimates remained unchanged at 36 million tonnes, down 31% from 52 million tonnes in 2021-22.

Sunflower yield

Sunflower harvest progressed 4.4 percentage points to 98.4% of the 2 million ha sowed area in the week ending April 26, while fieldwork was completed at the same point last year.

Sunflower areas in good-to-excellent condition increased by one percentage point to 23%, a one-point weekly increase, while poor-to-very-poor areas moved down by the same amount to 14%.

Areas rated as average remained stable at 63%.

The average yield is 19.9 quintals per hectare, up slightly from the prior week, leaving the output forecast steady at 3.9 million tonnes, up from 3.4 million tonnes in the previous crop.

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