This forecast was made by the company’s executive manager for battery products, Rogério Ribas, in an interview with Fastmarkets on Tuesday August 22.
The Brazil-based company is investing $80 million in building its first industrial-scale niobium oxide refining plant, intending to supply battery makers with the additive. The first production from this 3,000-tonnes-per-year facility was expected in the second quarter of 2024, Ribas said.
“If all of that new capacity coming online next year is sold out, we are talking about something near 5% of our annual revenues,” Ribas said on Tuesday. “By 2030, we hope to have 25% of our revenue coming from battery raw materials.”
By 2030, we hope to have 25% of our revenue coming from battery raw materials
Achievement of that goal by the end of this decade would mean selling around 35,000 tpy of battery-grade niobium oxide. This would compare with around 270 tonnes in 2022, which was purchased mostly by Chinese customers for applications in battery cathodes, Ribas said.
Those volumes would be equivalent to 40,000 tpy of ferro-niobium by 2030, compared with 400 tonnes last year. Ferro-niobium is CBMM’s main product, and is an alloy used mostly in steelmaking to improve strength and to prevent corrosion in steel products.
“Our idea is to put this new capacity into the market and see what the reaction to it will be,” Ribas said. “Then, we’ll establish what would be the triggers for any future expansion investment.”
CBMM currently has capacity to produce around 150,000 tpy of ferro-niobium, making it the main global supplier by far. More than 80% of the world’s output comes from the company. Its facilities are located in Araxá, a city in Brazil’s southeastern state of Minas Gerais.
Fastmarkets’ latest weekly price assessment for ferro-niobium 63-67%, delivered consumer works, dp, Europe, was $47.80-48.20 per kg Nb on August 23. This was unchanged since August 2, when it fell by 0.27% from $48.10-48.15 per kg Nb a week before.
So far in 2023, the price assessment has risen by 7.31% from $44.25-45.20 per kg Nb on December 28, 2022.
Niobium in battery anodes
The new refining plant being built by CBMM in Araxá will focus on niobium oxide applications in battery anodes, although it will have capacity to make some speciality grades meant for cathodes too, Ribas said.
Niobium in anodes for battery chemistries with high graphite content could help with durability and fast charging, he added, taking carbon out of the equation. Although its application in anodes is more niche than in cathodes, for example, niobium volumes would be much higher in the former.
“For anodes, we can produce a mixed oxide with titanium or tungsten in powder form, which will then be used in a paint product that will coat the anode, and niobium content can be around 60-95% of it,” Ribas said. “For each kilowatt-hour [kWh] of capacity, 1.5kg of niobium would be needed.”
CBMM aims to capture markets such as heavy duty, last-mile delivery trucks, ships, rail transport and some uninterruptible-supply energy storage systems (ESS) with that application in anodes.
“For example, a hybrid truck that needs 3-5kWh in capacity, in general, uses 10-15kWh battery packs for fast charging. With niobium, a 3kWh battery would be possible,” Ribas said.
Cathodes and the future
On the other hand, niobium oxide usage in cathodes is more niche, and would mean a much lower volume of the metal was needed, Ribas told Fastmarkets. Niobium content per kWh, for example, would be weighed in grams, he added.
It can act as a powder additive going into any battery chemistry – such as nickel–cobalt-manganese (NCM) or lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) – to help with stability and durability via coating or doping as a ready-for-use stabilizer.
In China, which is by far the country with the largest battery manufacturing capacity at the moment, the Brazilian company expected the rise of LFP batteries with manganese added (so, LMFP) because this would make energy density higher, and it was seeing some development on that front.
There was talk, Ribas said, that LMFP batteries could substitute around 60% of LFP chemistries in the future, with at least half of lithium-manganese oxide users adding niobium to the mix.
CBMM also believed that adoption of high-nickel NCM batteries would grow rapidly.
“And niobium usage in cathodes is especially good for high nickel content due to its issues when reacting to the atmosphere, affecting performance. Niobium reduces that risk,” Ribas said.
Niobium content in this case, although with much more widespread use than in more specific markets than would be the case for anodes, would be significantly smaller: less than 1%.
Fastmarkets has similar expectations for the use of high-nickel NCM and LFP chemistries in batteries, albeit not in detail regarding LMFP.
The forecast from Fastmarkets research is for LFP to represent 43% of the market by 2033, compared with 25% last year, while high-nickel NCM would reach 34% a decade from now, compared with 1% last year.
At the same time, usage of NCM 811 batteries (8:1:1 ratio nickel:cobalt:manganese) would fall to 9% over that period, from 21%, and NCM 622 market share would go to 2%, from its dominant position at 41% in 2022, according to Fastmarkets research. The projection was that high-manganese NCM battery use would be at 9% in 2033, from nil currently.
According to Ribas, competitors to niobium in terms of helping with fast charging and durability in cathodes would be principally boron, but also tantalum, zirconium, titanium, tungsten and even aluminium.
Niobium prices could be high in comparison with those other materials, he acknowledged, but added that it could be used alone – unlike zirconium, for example, which must be applied in tandem with boron or tantalum.
Ribas said that in future niobium could also be used in the battery electrolyte, but only in solid-state units.
We are working on its usage for that next generation of solid-state batteries
“We are working on its usage for that next generation of solid-state batteries,” he told Fastmarkets. “We might see that market start to grow in five or ten years’ time for specific applications, but it will definitely be more than 10 years for the mobility sector.”
