Chinese corn imports set new low for first half of year

Key takeaways:

• Chinese corn imports in the first half of 2025 totaled 785,320 tonnes, a sharp drop of 10.17 million tonnes compared to the same period last year, and well below the five-year average of 11.1 million tonnes.
• High domestic production, large stockpiles, slower economic growth, and government-imposed restrictions on feed grain imports have collectively reduced demand for imported corn.
• Brazil remains the leading supplier despite reduced volumes, while imports from Ukraine and the US have significantly declined. Russia has emerged as a notable supplier, doubling its export volume to China compared to last year.

Decline in Chinese corn imports

The total of Chinese corn imports so far in the first half of the 2025 financial year was only 785,320 tonnes. It was down by a significant 10.17 million tonnes compared with 10.96 million tonnes imported at the corresponding stage a year earlier.

It was also unusually lower than the average import volumes in the past five years at this stage of the year, which was 11.1 million tonnes.

Factors behind the drop

There were a few reasons for this, including high local production, high stocks, and a stronger flow of imports in recent years. At the same time, there was also a decline in economic growth. Together, these resulted in lower consumer demand in the country and consequently lower prices.

China’s Agriculture Outlook Committee (CAOC) has forecast corn production at 296.16 million tonnes for the 2025/26 marketing year. The USDA’s estimation was 295 million tonnes. This is closely in line with last year’s figure, but also around 10 million tonnes, 3%, above the five-year average.

“The economy has been suffering due to slower growth, which does not support consumption as well,” a broker said.

He added that, for now, the Chinese government was not encouraging imports that could depress domestic values and cut farmers’ margins, which would further affect their planting decisions.

“Domestically, China is oversupplied, so the customs [authority] has requested restrictions on feed grain imports, including corn, barley and sorghum, since last September,” a second broker said.

Chinese corn imports and quotas

Chinese corn imports enter the country via state and private importers.

There is an annual 7.2 million tonnes quota, with around 40% for private importers. This was said to have been partly released already. So Fastmarkets expected that this would be seen at some point.

This meant a volume around 2.88 million tonnes. Out of which 785,320 tonnes had already been imported and more was expected to be loaded from Brazil’s safrinha crop, but no more than 1 million tonnes. Fastmarkets had not heard of any significant amounts traded from Ukraine.

It was also understood that the state’s portion of the quota had not yet been released. Some market sources said that this volume may be retained to be used later, if a deal with the US is signed.

The CAOC forecast Chinese corn imports in the 2025 year of 7 million tonnes. This is slightly below the usual annual import quota of 7.2 million tonnes. But the USDA was more optimistic, forecasting 10 million tonnes.

The prices in the domestic Chinese markets were around 2,300 RMB ($320) per tonne. This was considered low, but also indicated a potential margin for importers. Fastmarkets assessed the price of US-origin corn, cif China, loaded from Pacific ports, at $241.75 per tonne on July 18. This would be cheaper than the price for corn, fob Brazil, at $208 per tonne on the same day, when also considering the cost of freight.

Market sources said that, after the implementation of unofficial restrictions on corn imports one year before, private buyers were still very cautious and were mostly only buying small amounts on a hand-to-mouth basis.

Key suppliers and trade dynamics

Given that the general import volume has gone down by almost 93% year on year, alongside the continuing political tensions with US, the key importers have changed.

Brazil remained the key supplier of corn to China. Even though June imports were zero. But the total for the year to date was 248,900 tonnes, compared with 5.76 million tonnes at the same stage a year earlier.

Ukraine, once China’s top corn supplier, shipped only 65,730 tonnes in June. This was down by 40,776 tonnes, 38.3%, from 106,506 tonnes in May. And put the total corn volume imported from Ukraine over January 1 to July 1 at 231,090 tonnes.

Trade sources expected that only private companies were able to buy from Ukraine for now.

At the same time, given the abnormal drop in import volumes, Russia appeared to be among the three key suppliers. It saw 81,914 tonnes imported in June, bringing the year-to-date total to 201,420 tonnes. That was more than double last year’s import total at the same stage, which was 81,496 tonnes.

Corn exports from Russia were generally not allowed after February 15, with no quota released. But there was an exception for the Russian Far East regions because of the available supply there. Corn from Russia was currently only shipped in trains, small vessels or containers from Russian Far East ports. So the potential increase was limited.

Finally, imports from the US were almost absent. Just 164 tonnes were imported in June, compared with 11,665 tonnes in May. That put the total corn import volume from the US in 2025 at 20,070 tonnes.

Last year at the same stage, the US had supplied 1.38 million tonnes of corn to China.

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