Corn futures commentary: US futures down amid projected steady conditions

US corn futures opened the week on Monday July 21 lower amid continued crop development and expectations for overall favorable growing conditions.

By 1pm US Eastern time, the September futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was down by 7 cents per bushel to $4.00 per bu, and the December contract fell by the same amount to $4.20 per bu.

In Asia, futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange trended higher. The September contract increased by 15 yuan per tonne to 2,320 yuan ($323) per tonne and the November contract rose by 8 yuan per tonne to 2,281 yuan per tonne.

In Ukraine, the country exported 311,000 tonnes of grain during the week to July 20, down by 24% from 407,000 tonnes the previous week, according to figures from the State Customs Service, published by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine on Monday.

Weekly corn exports fell to 111,000 tonnes, down by 57% week on week. Season-to-date corn exports reached 420,000 tonnes, compared with 1.39 million tonnes at the same point last year – a 70% decline.

In Russia, the government has again reduced its corn export duty for July 23-29 by $0.40 cents to $231.70 per tonne FOB, with the import tariff lowered to 840.80 roubles ($10.85) per tonne, down by 106.30 roubles per tonne, according to an official note published by the country’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 18.

In South America, Fastmarkets’ assessment of Argentina’s corn FOB premium for September loading fell by 3 cents per bu to 104 cents per bu over September CME futures.

Fastmarkets’ assessment of Brazil’s corn FOB premium for September loading was flat at 120 cents per bu over September CME futures.

Farmer corn sales pick up in Brazil

Farmer sales picked up in Brazil last week, while the harvest advances and there was more space for storage of the new crop. While domestic buyers were more focused on cargoes for August and September loading, exporters were focused on October, November and December, according to Eduardo Vanin, lead analyst at Agrinvest.

The second corn crop harvest in Brazil’s Center-South reached 15% by July 17, a weekly rise of 15 percentage points, according to local consultancy AgRural. This still lagged behind last year’s 82% completion rate.

AgRural raised its total corn crop estimate for Brazil to 136.3 million tonnes, up from June’s 130.6 million, driven by a higher second corn crop (safrinha) estimate of 108.9 million tonnes, compared with the previous 103.4 million tonnes. This followed record yields in the states of Mato Grosso, Goiás, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul.

Corn harvest in Mato Grosso reached 77.26% in the week to Friday, a weekly advance of 19.7 percentage points, but still behind the 96.62% completion rate from a year earlier, the state agency Imea showed in its weekly report on Friday. The average for the past five years was 86.81%.

In the US, CIF Gulf premiums for August loading were reported 1 cent per bu higher from Friday to 95 cents per bu over the September CME futures contract and the FOB Gulf premium for the same month was noted steady at $1.05 per bu over the same underlying contract.

US FOB Pacific Northwest premiums for August and September loading were reported around $1.29 per bu over the September CME futures contract, both unchanged from Friday.

Export inspections of US corn fell by 25% to 983,625 tonnes in the week ended July 17, according to USDA data published on July 21. Total export inspections since the start of the 2024/25 marketing year climbed to 58.82 million tonnes, up by 29% from the 45.61 million tonnes recorded during the same period a year earlier.

In the US Midwest, cooler conditions in the Great Lakes region were aiding crop development, while the western and southern areas were experiencing hot, stormy weather, according to USDA weather highlights for July 21.

Corn crop conditions in good-to-excellent condition were estimated at 74% of the total crop in the week to July 20, steady from the previous week, but would be below the five-year average of 64%.

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