Oversupply of lithium, funding struggles, uneven supply chains, and geopolitical learning curves dominated discussions. This occurred as over 1,000 market participants gathered at the Fastmarkets Lithium Supply and Battery Raw Materials Conference 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The conference took place from June 23-26. Here are the top five things we learned about the battery supply chain this year:
- Lithium supply levels dominate discussions
With lithium prices approaching four-year lows, concerns over oversupply weighed heavily on sentiment throughout the conference.
Attendees debated whether market softness would persist. New supply from Australia and Africa is still coming online. Additionally, brine expansions in South America add to an already oversupplied market.
Port stocks of spodumene and lithium salts may be falling, according to some market participants. But they are declining from a high base. Some sources estimated spodumene port stocks in China alone at around 400,000 tonnes. One delegate called this “much higher than average”.
“It could take over six months to burn through the inventories,” a second delegate said.
Most market participants remained confident in long-term supply and demand fundamentals. However, short-term caution defined the mood. This was driven by slower-than-expected EV adoption in key markets like Europe and the US.
- Funding squeeze puts pressure on upstream and midstream projects
One of the clearest pain points shared across the supply chain was the difficulty of accessing capital. From junior miners to midstream converters and recyclers, companies reported challenges. Funding for new capacity has become harder to secure. Private investors are more risk-averse, and public markets are still cool on battery raw materials plays.
“Lithium is just no longer attractive for investors,” an industry participant said, referring to the struggles pertaining to access to capital.
Some larger players with strong balance sheets or strategic partners are pushing ahead with expansions. In contrast, others are pausing or shelving projects. The impact is most acute in non-integrated operations that rely on third-party offtake or tolling arrangements. This is particularly true outside China, a third delegate said.
Turning to Europe, the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) came under scrutiny. There was a majority consensus that it lacks hard targets, incentives, and direct financing pathways.
Some companies with projects designated as ‘strategic’ under the CRMA were in attendance. Nonetheless, participants questioned how meaningful that label is in securing capital.
“In some ways, it is just a label, it doesn’t guarantee anything — but it’s better to have the label than not,” a fourth delegate said.
- Desire for interdependence
Amid ongoing efforts by Western nations to build out domestic battery supply chains, several speakers acknowledged the continued dominance and agility of Chinese firms.
The push for greater regional independence has triggered policy responses in the US and EU. However, China remains a key reference point for scale, cost-efficiency, and vertical integration.
Delegates discussed the idea of building interdependence rather than independence, with more emphasis on knowledge- and technology-sharing initiatives involving China.
Some suggested that learning from China’s deployment strategies and end-market development could help Western players accelerate project execution.
- Battery recyclers continue to battle market headwinds
Battery recyclers are still grappling with slim margins and a weaker-than-expected short-term supply of end-of-life (EOL) batteries. Slower EV growth has delayed scrap availability, while low metals prices have compressed payables for black mass producers.
In the US, policy uncertainty, including around the Inflation Reduction Act and export rules, had added another layer of complexity. With domestic refining capacity still limited, recyclers remain heavily reliant on international buyers.
Views were mixed on whether China might reopen to black mass imports. Some fear this would undercut efforts to scale US refining. Others believe higher black mass pricing would support investment in new domestic infrastructure.
- US supply chain remains vulnerable without midstream buildout
The vulnerability of the US battery supply chain was another key theme. Particularly concerning is the lack of investment in midstream processing capacity for cathode and anode materials.
Government support and private capital have flowed into mining projects and cell manufacturing. However, the middle segment of the value chain remains underdeveloped.
Speakers highlighted that without greater focus in this area, the US will remain dependent on foreign suppliers for critical processed materials. This undermines ambitions for supply chain independence.
There are also views among speakers that a policy shift is needed to attract more midstream investment. This is particularly needed in light of national energy security and emergency preparedness concerns.
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