Mexico’s domestic yellow, white corn production forecast higher

Supply and demand report by Mexican Agricultural and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP) projects increase in output

Mexico’s yellow and white corn domestic supply for is expected to grow in 2022-23, a supply and demand report by the Mexican Agricultural and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP) revealed Monday, 31 July.

Yellow corn production

Mexico’s national supply of yellow corn for the 2022-23 marketing year, as of June 2023, is projected at 22.7 million tonnes, or 2.3% higher compared to the previous cycle.

The planting and harvest figures up to June for the autumn-winter 2022-2023 cycle indicate that 55,492 hectares of yellow corn have been planted.

Tamaulipas and Chiapas are the top two states in Mexico with the largest planted area, accounting for 88.6% of the total.

In regards to harvest, 37.8% of progress has been completed in the country, with collection to date totaling 100,590 tonnes.

Sinaloa and Tamaulipas are reported as the states with the highest production, both amounting to 80.1% of the total.

For the spring-summer 2023 cycle, as of June 2023, there is a planted area of 309,042 hectares, with Chihuahua, Jalisco, and Chiapas together accounting for 81.7% of the total national surface sown.

In the 2022-23 cycle, demand is expected to decrease, and ending stocks are expected at 2.88 million tonnes, which indicates an increase of 21.9% compared to the previous period.

The price paid to producers in the month of June 2023 was $5,290 pesos ($316 USD) per tonne, which implies a reduction of 9.4% year-on-year.

Compared to the previous month, the price reflects a decrease of 4.2%.

View our corn prices

White corn production

For the 2022-23 market cycle, as of June 2023, the supply of white corn is forecast at 26.68 million tonnes, 1.2% higher compared to the 2021-22 marketing year.

The increased supply is a result of reduced imports a, down 3.8%, while production is forecast to increase by 2.5%.

For the autumn-winter 2022-2023 cycle, planted area is at 1.16 million hectares.

Sinaloa, Veracruz, Chiapas, and Oaxaca, have the largest area planted, amounting to 76.7% of the national total.

The production obtained is 6.73 million tonnes, with Sinaloa, Veracruz, Sonora, and Oaxaca having a combined output participation of 89%.

In the spring-summer 2023 cycle, as of June 2023, there is a planted area of 2.64 million hectares, with the largest contributions deriving from the state of Mexico, Puebla, Chiapas, Veracruz, and Michoacán, with a total participation of 60.8%.

Total demand in the 2022-23 cycle, is expected at 18.65 million tonnes, while exports could reach 205,00 tonnes.

Human consumption is projected to account for 56% of the total national demand.

Domestic production is forecast to contribute 90.4% of Mexico’s total supply.

Ending stocks are estimated at 2.52 million tonnes, 31.6% more compared with the previous cycle.

The price paid to white corn producers in the month of June 2023 was $5,160 pesos ($308 USD) per tonne, 22.6% lower year-on-year.

The tortilla was quoted at $22.58 pesos per kilogram, which indicates an increase of 14% compared to the previous year.

For more information on the current corn market, take a look at our dedicated page for corn market news.

What to read next
In the latest short episode of Fast Forward, Fastmarkets grain market reporter Masha Belikova explores the key forces shaping wheat pricing across the Black Sea region and why prices have remained unexpectedly firm despite strong crop expectations.
US wheat futures and Euronext contracts were mixed on Tuesday June 16, with most US contracts moving lower, while Chicago soft red winter wheat futures posted gains. Euronext contracts also moved higher during the session. Global cash markets remained subdued, with limited activity as buyers largely stayed on the sidelines. Black Sea wheat prices are starting to trend lower under seasonal harvest pressure, while Australia, Europe and Argentina were broadly steady.
Soybean and soybean meal futures continued to ride on the coattails of the bullish National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crush report on Tuesday June 16, with market chatter that China is bidding on — or indeed may have already bought — US beans for February, giving much-lauded impetus to further increases in futures markets over the period.
Soybean oil bases in Argentina and Brazil hit a record spread to their counterpart in the US Gulf on June 1, with a mix of biofuel policies, harvest pressures and export competition against rival oils creating massive regional divergences, although the spread decreased by the end of last week amid a CME soyoil futures sell-off.
EU wheat exports reached 19.23 million tonnes as of May 31, according to European Commission data, yet weekly flow data from Rouen port collapsed 66.6% to 72,923 tonnes in the week to June 3, pointing to a sharp deceleration in physical trade.
Fastmarkets’ weekly recap of the main movements in global cash markets.