Organic corn prices stable despite drop in conventional corn cost
Imports expected to increase
Organic corn prices have remained stable despite a massive drop in conventional corn prices. Historically, the cost of traditional corn has only had a minor impact on organic corn prices when the price is falling.
From some perspective, the price of organic corn has doubled since its lows in September 2020, and gone from approximately $6 per bushel (Mid-West) to $12 per bushel. During the same period, conventional corn (CME) rallied from $3.5 per bushel to a high of more than $8 per bushel and back to $6 per bushel.
There has been some significant volatility in the conventional corn market.
There will likely be an increase in domestic production in the 2022 marketing year.
Imports over the next quarter will be the real issue that describes whether there is a significant carryover into the 2022-23 market year.
Organic whole corn imports through May 2020 were trending upwards. For the first eight months of the 2021-22 marketing year, they are up by 23,000 tonnes.
In July, 17,000 tonnes of organic corn were imported into the United States through Morehead City, North Carolina. During the third quarter of 2021, the US imports reached approximately 47,000 tonnes.
In 2021, there were large shipments of whole corn during the months of July and September. In the current marketing year, there will be an additional 6,000-tonne increase in imports from Canada.
Organic cracked corn imports will be key to the success of the marketing year.
For the first nine months of the 2021-22 season, approximately 115,000 tonnes of organic cracked corn have been imported into the United States, down 165,500 tonnes from the previous year. The decline in organic cracked corn imports has often followed the rise in organic whole corn imports.
The upshot is that the third quarter of the 2020-21 marketing year saw a total of 90,000 tonnes of organic cracked and whole corn imported.