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In the cash markets, not much wheat buying was seen during the week across the state tenders. Still, Jordan’s state grain importer MIT purchased 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat for May shipment paying $264.50 per tonne CFR Aqaba.
South Korean millers from KOFMIA bought 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat from the US and 40,000 tonnes from Canada for June-July shipment.
Fastmarkets’ wheat 10.5% FOB Australia W APW assessment rose by $1 per tonne on Thursday February 12 to $258 per tonne for March loading, along with wheat 9.5% FOB Australia W ASW, which also increased by $1 per tonne to $248 per tonne FOB Western Australia. In general the trade remains very slow in the country, given the strong national currency and continued lack of selling interest from producers’ side.
Fastmarkets’ assessment for wheat 12.5% FOB Russia was unchanged day on day at $231.50 per tonne FOB for March shipment on Friday February 13, while wheat 11.5% FOB Russia was also assessed unchanged at $228 per tonne FOB.
The price assessment for wheat 11.5% FOB Ukraine decreased by $1.50 per tonne to $225.00 per tonne for March loading on Thursday. It was last assessed at $227.00 per tonne on Friday.
Feed wheat FOB Ukraine prices were unchanged at $220 per tonne FOB Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC).
The European Black Sea market moved higher, with the assessment for wheat 11.5% FOB CVB moving up by $3.00 per tonne week on week to $234.50 per tonne on Friday, while wheat 12.5% FOB Constanta/Varna/Burgas was $235.50 per tonne, up by $1 per tonne week on week, and feed wheat FOB Constanta/Varna/Burgas was up by $1.50 per tonne week on week, assessed at $231.00 on Friday.
European wheat prices rose slightly week on week.
Wheat 11% FOB France rose by $0.75 per tonne to $233 per tonne FOB for March loading.
Wheat 12.5% FOB Baltic also rose by $0.75 per tonne to $239 per tonne for loading in March.
Wheat 12.5% FOB Poland rose by $2 per tonne to $239 per tonne for March loading by Friday.
Wheat 12.5% FOB Germany rose by $2.25 per tonne week on week to $241.50 per tonne FOB for March loading.
In North America, US Gulf hard red winter (HRW) wheat, US soft red winter (SRW) wheat, Pacific Northwest (PNW) soft white (SW) wheat and Canada western red spring (CWRS) wheat climbed.
The assessment for wheat 11% FOB US Gulf HRW increased by $7.25 per tonne week on week to $248.50 per tonne on Thursday February 12, while wheat 10.5%, fob US Gulf SRW rose by $7.00 per tonne to $238 per tonne and wheat 10% FOB US Pacific Northwest SW climbed by $6.00 per tonne to $248 per tonne.
Wheat 13.5% FOB Canada CWRS climbed by $1.75 per tonne to $259.00 per tonne on Friday.
Chicago SRW, Kansas HRW and Minneapolis hard red spring (HRS) futures jumped as market participants squared positions after prices initially dipping on the USDA’s influential World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, a substantial gain in export sales and on continuing concerns about the effect of cold weather in the Black Sea region and dry conditions in the southern US Great Plains.
The USDA slightly increased US wheat ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year but left domestic output projections unchanged, according to the February update to its WASDE published on February 10.
The Department slightly trimmed global ending stocks and production forecasts in the latest WASDE.
Export inspections of US wheat increased by 76% to 580,130 tonnes during the week to February 5 from 330,512 tonnes the previous week, according to data from the USDA released on February 9.
US weekly wheat net sales for the 2025/26 crop year totaled 488,000 tonnes in the week to February 5, up by 31% from the previous week and 14% from the prior four-week average, according to data released by the USDA on February 12.
Market participants projected net sales of between 200,000 tonnes and 500,000 tonnes.
Exports of 580,000 tonnes were up by 44% from the previous week and up by 59% from the four-week average.
In Canada, durum prices declined, with wheat 14.5% FOB Vancouver 2CWAD falling by $5 per tonne week on week to $265 per tonne, while wheat 14.5% FOB St Lawrence 2CWAD slipped by $5 per tonne to $280 per tonne.
Canadian wheat exports jumped by 129% to 528,200 tonnes in the week ending February 8, according to data released by the Canadian Grain Commission on February 13. Cumulative wheat shipments reached 12.03 million tonnes, 11.5% than during the same period a year earlier.
Durum exports were steady at 130,500 tonnes, broadly unchanged from the previous week. Marketing-year-to-date exports totaled 2.85 million tonnes, down by 2.6% compared with a year earlier.
Wheat 11.5% FOB Argentina were unchanged week on week at $215 per tonne on Friday.
Argentine farmer sales of the 2025/26 wheat crop fell by 28.23% week on week to 397,800 tonnes in the week ending February 4, while sales of the 2024/25 crop rose by 40.91% to 9,300 tonnes, according to data released by Argentina’s agriculture secretariat on February 11.
A total of 14.95 million tonnes of the 2025/26 crop have been sold year to date, up by 58.22% year on year from 13.66 million tonnes a year earlier.
US corn prices edged lower during the week, pressured by ample supply as market participants weighed ample supply and evidence of robust demand.
Corn FOB US Gulf prices declined by $1.00 per tonne from February 6 to $218.75 per tonne on February 12, while corn FOB US PNW prices decreased by $1.25 per tonne to $221.50 per tonne.
The market is still digesting the USDA’s most recent WASDE report released on February 10, which trimmed 2025/26 US corn ending stocks forecast while raising export estimates, while leaving its production estimate unchanged at a record high level. The department slightly lowered global ending stocks and production estimates.
Meanwhile, demand indicators were firm, with US ethanol production surging by 154,000 barrels per day to an average of 1.11 million bpd in the week ended February 6, according to data published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on February 11. Ethanol stocks increased by 111,000 barrels in the week to Friday to 25.25 million barrels, EIA data showed.
US weekly net sales of corn for the 2025/26 crop year totaled 2.07 million tonnes in the week to February 5, up by 99% from the previous week and by 6% from the prior four-week average, according to data released by the USDA on February 12.
Market participants projected that the Department would report net sales of between 600,000 tonnes and 1.1 million tonnes.
Exports of 1.513 million tonnes were up by 25% from the previous week but down by 4% from the four-week average.
Export inspections of US corn rose by 14% to 1.31 million tonnes in the week ended February 5, compared with 1.15 million tonnes the previous week, according to USDA data published on February 9.
In South America, FOB corn prices moved in different directions over the week, with corn FOB Argentina down by $0.75 per tonne to $205.75 per tonne and corn FOB Brazil July-loading prices up by $0.75 per tonne to $215.75 per tonne.
Daily cash premiums were steady in Argentina and decreased slightly in Brazil.
Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop production was lowered to 138.44 million tonnes, down 0.3% from last month’s 138.86 million tonnes projection and 1.9% lower than the previous crop’s 141.1 million tonnes output, Brazil’s food agency Conab said in its monthly crop update on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn planting has come to an end, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s (BAGE) February 12 crop report. A week before, the exchange cut its estimate for the country’s corn production by 1 million tonnes, to 57 million tonnes, due to a water deficit in early-sown areas.
Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) kept its estimate at a record 62 million tonnes in its monthly estimate update released on Wednesday February 11.
Through the week ended Friday, Ukrainian corn prices were stable, supported by strong demand for spot deliveries on a DAP basis as well as from destinations such as Turkey, Egypt, Spain and Italy.
Selling prices were stable, at $224-226 per tonne for March-May shipments, with buying interest heard up to $222 per tonne FOB POC.
Fastmarkets’ assessment of Ukrainian corn FOB settled at $223 per tonne for March.
On the domestic DAP market, prices were marginally higher, with bids heard up to $214 per tonne for spot and March deliveries.
Fastmarkets’ assessment of Ukrainian corn CPT settled at $215 per tonne for March delivery.
Market activity in soybean cash markets continued to slow down ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays, with only 10 cargoes reported traded, down from 20 in the week prior and around 40 in the week before.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange soybean futures surged on renewed optimism that China could lock in more US old crop volumes and following reports in Chinese state media that the current trade deal between the United States and China could be extended for longer than previously announced. The two countries’ leaders are also expected to meet in April.
However, gains were capped by expectations of large supplies from South America.
The rally in the CME was steeper than the decline in basis premiums, with outright prices higher in Brazil, hurting China’s crush margins.
Chinese crushers continued to procure more competitively priced Brazilian soybeans; some of them held a wait-and-see stance ahead of the holiday as crush margins deteriorated significantly with the expectation that China would step in to secure more US soybeans.
Moreover, near-term supply is expected to grow further on the market talks that the authorities may auction about 5 million tonnes of state soybean reserves after the Lunar New Year, market sources said.
Chinese state-owned food processing holding company COFCO has shown interest in buying US soybeans this week, and a trade was reportedly heard for US soybeans in the FOB market.
April and May trades from Brazil were last concluded at a premium of $1.03-1.10 per bushel (bu) and $1.25 per bu, all over May futures. June and July trades were concluded at a premium of $1.27 per bu and $1.45 per bu, respectively, all over July futures.
Fastmarkets’ assessment for soybean CFR China premium for March loading was $1.10 per bu over March CME futures on Friday, down from $1.20 per bu over the same contract the week prior. Despite the drop in premiums, outright prices rose to $456.75 per tonne from $450.75 the week prior.
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