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The Rosario grains exchange has once again cut its projection for Argentina’s wheat output as production was affected by dry and hot weather, in a report released on Wednesday, December 14.
Production is now projected at 11.5 million tonnes, according to BCR, down 300,000 tonnes from the previous 11.8 million tonnes and 50% below the record 23 million tonnes set last year.
This could be the smallest crop since 2010.
The figure takes into account 5.9 million hectares sown and an area loss of 900,000 hectares that will not be harvested. Last year Argentinian farmers sowed 6.9 million hectares of wheat.
With the wheat harvest already underway, losses are confirmed in Córdoba, Buenos Aires and Santa Fe, but the province of Entre Ríos has compensated for a good part of the decrease in production.
Despite the good performance in Entre Rios, BCR warned the output would be as low as 11 million tonnes.
BCR kept its projection for soybean planted area in the country unchanged at 17.1 million hectares but said there might be important modifications in the next report as sowing is delayed due to dry weather.
According to BCR, Argentina has been going through the worst planting conditions in the last 20 years.
So far, around 8.4 million hectares have been planted, amounting to 49% of the planned area, while a year ago, 65% of the early soybean crop was covered for the same period.
“Planting continues to be haunted by the lack of water and the very high temperatures that have been sustained week after week since November,” BCR added.
The rain from the past weekend moved northwards, and instead of favoring Buenos Aires, it was the center and north of Cordoba and Santa Fe that received the highest volumes.
“The last sowing batches show uneven emergence and seedling losses. Last week there were intense days of heat stress that added to the effects of the water shortage,” BCR said.
In the central region, one-third of the soybean fields show fair to poor conditions.
View our data analysis on soybean crush volumes and margins
Corn sowing has reached 47%of the 7.9 million hectares planned, while 66% of the total was planted for the same period last year. In the 2021-22 crop, producers sowed 8.6 million hectares of corn.
Lack of water is causing this significant delay, and around 1.3 to 1.4 million hectares planted up to mid-October are in fair to poor condition.
“Thermo-hydric stress threatens total losses and damage to yield potential. With forecasts indicating the continuity of the dry pattern, these hectares have very little chance of reversing this situation,” BCR stated.
View our data analysis on corn market trends