French ministry raises estimated wheat output, corn sharply lower year on year

The French agriculture ministry releases its estimates on wheat, corn, barley and rapeseed production

The French agriculture ministry has raised its estimate for the country’s soft wheat output in 2022 compared with its July estimate, while its first estimates for corn production are sharply down on 2021 levels and on the five-year average.

Wheat revised upwards

The ministry estimated soft wheat production at 33.9 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from 32.9 million tonnes in its July estimate.

This would mark a 4.4% drop in output year-on-year due to a decline in the planted area (down 5.8%) and despite a slight increase in yield (7.2 tonnes per hectare compared to 7.1 tonnes per hectare in 2021) and is 3.1% lower than the five-year average.

For durum wheat, the ministry estimated production at 1.4 million tonnes, slightly above last month’s figure but still markedly below last year and the five-year average due to a fall in the planted area.

The estimate is 14.2% lower than the previous year’s output and 19.1% lower than the five-year average.

Durum yield is estimated at 5.3 tonnes per hectare, just below last year’s levels.

France finished harvesting soft wheat this week, according to a report by farm agency FranceAgriMer earlier Friday.

Barley production stable

Barley production was estimated at 11.4 million tonnes, marginally up on last month.

Despite an increase in the planted area, this falls 0.6% below last year’s level and 3.2% below the five-year average.

Winter barley production was estimated at 8.4 million tonnes, slightly above last month and 2.5% up on last year’s figure, with an increase in planted area (up 7.1%) offsetting a drop in yields (down 4.3%).

Spring barley production is estimated at just below 3 million tonnes, an 8.3% drop on 2021 due to a sharp drop in yields (5.3 tonnes per hectare in 2022 against 6.1 tonnes per hectare in 2021).

Corn set to fall 18.5% on 2021

The ministry released its first estimates for the corn crop, stressing that these were indicative levels as harvest work on corn has not yet begun.

The 2022 harvest is provisionally estimated at 12.7 million tonnes, 18,5 % down on 2021 and 9,1% lower than the five-year average.

This is due to a 90,000-hectare drop in planted area and a sharp fall in expected yield, to 8.7 tonnes per hectare from 10 tonnes per hectare in 2021.

Rapeseed production sees sharp increase

By contrast, the ministry said it expected a sharp increase in rapeseed production this year, and currently puts the production figure at 4.3 million tonnes, up from just under 4 million tonnes in its July estimate.

This would be 31.6% higher than last year’s production figure and 6.4% higher than the five-year average.

The planted area exceeded 1.2 million hectares, which is 236,000 hectares more than in 2021.

The yield is currently estimated at 3.57 tonnes per hectare, up from July’s estimate of 3.28 tonnes per hectare and up 2.1% from last year.

Keep up to date with the latest grains and oilseeds news, price trends and forecasts by visiting Fastmarkets Agriculture.

What to read next
In today's market, effective food and beverage procurement is critical for profitability. However, many procurement teams face challenges due to fragmented data, where packaging and ingredient costs are managed in separate silos. This disconnect creates a massive blind spot, making it difficult to challenge supplier price hikes or accurately model total product costs.
The start of the new 2026 financial year makes it possible to highlight several key developments in the Russian wheat market during the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year. These include higher production, slower export activity, very stable prices and the continued dominance of three major exporters in terms of market share.
The Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB) wheat market has entered the 2025-2026 marketing year from a firmer price base than last season, but underlying fundamentals point to a more challenging trading environment. While early summer values reflected a sense of tightness, high regional yields, weak margins and cautious farmer behavior are reshaping market dynamics and export flows, according to sources.
In this month's featured insight, find out more from Fastmarkets' senior analyst Eduardo Gonzalez about how non-traditional destinations like South Korea and Vietnam fuel a structural shift in US export demands.
Ukraine’s corn exports have slowed to their lowest level in a decade despite a solid harvest, with continued logistical constraints restricting shipment volumes and consequently supporting prices.
Ukraine exported 420,200 tonnes of sunflower oil in December 2025, up 3% from 409,300 tonnes in November, according to preliminary customs-based data compiled by the Ukroliyaprom Association.