This 2025 outlook focuses on the key raw materials shaping the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry. We highlight price trends for three crucial commodities – paper packaging (including softwood pulp), aluminium and palm oil. By examining the forces driving these changes, we provide insights into their significant impact on FMCG production and supply chains.
Looking for insights on a different material? Explore our forecasts for a wide range of vital raw materials, available now on our 2025 commodity market outlooks hub.
Sluggish macroeconomic outlook
The 2025 economy is shaped by trade war uncertainty, making it a tricky environment. Three main factors will influence buying decisions:
- Consumer demand: Drives North American and European economies but may be impacted by uncertainty. China’s changing consumer habits will be of influence globally.
- Renewable energy and electric transport: Growth will continue despite geopolitical risks. Lower interest rates may increase consumer spending.
- Trade wars: Could disrupt supply chains, manufacturing and shipping, causing volatility and regional growth changes.
For FMCG businesses, staying attuned to consumer behavior trends, the role of commodities in supply chains and these broader economic shifts will be essential for navigating 2025 successfully.
Pulp price recovery underway
The global pulp market in 2025 is working to find stability amidst shifting conditions. Producers are addressing surplus inventories through production slowdowns and downtime schedules, despite challenges from trade disputes and capacity expansions.
Tariff uncertainties and changing supply dynamics are driving market disruptions. US pulp prices have risen by $115–160 per ton this year, fuelled by tighter bleached softwood kraft (BSK) supplies and reduced Canadian exports. China’s growing eucalyptus wood capacity is reshaping hardwood markets, while potential 25% US tariffs on Canadian imports have pushed northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) prices up to $1,835 per ton. Hardwood pulp prices, however, have seen slower growth due to global capacity expansions.
Regional trends show mixed demand. Southern bleached softwood kraft (SBSK) and fluff markets tightened after mill closures and reduced output in the US. Bleached eucalyptus kraft (BEK) prices reached $1,360 per ton, buoyed by strong US tissue maker demand and tariff-driven market shifts, though rising import costs may cap further increases.
Geopolitical tensions, currency volatility and evolving demand in China add to the uncertainty. With tighter supplies expected, businesses dependent on pulp must stay proactive to mitigate risks and leverage opportunities tied to key raw materials.
Get the details: London Pulp Week: lessons learned and scoping the year ahead | 2025 preview – Fastmarkets
Paper and packaging landscape shows significant volatility
The paper and packaging sector in 2025 is navigating immense volatility due to fluctuating demand, evolving supply chains and trade disruptions. Escalating trade tensions and economic uncertainty have reshaped global logistics and material flows, particularly affecting recycled fiber and containerboard markets.
Trade conflicts continue to ripple through global recovered paper (RCP) markets. Recycled fiber, a key raw material for containerboard, depends on smooth trade flows. However, elevated tariffs and retaliatory actions strain supply chains, resulting in weaker demand and price pressures. Chinese imports of recycled pulp dropped by 18.7% in early 2025, while Southeast Asia saw reduced RCP imports amid economic challenges. North American bulky RCP grades faced sluggish domestic demand and soft export opportunities, causing additional price declines.
Regional trends further highlight challenges. Southeast Asia, previously a trade relocation hub, now deals with high tariffs and slowed manufacturing activity due to uncertain conditions. Meanwhile, Europe saw short-term OCC price increases earlier this year, driven by new recycled paper capacity, but prices may stabilize as supply levels improve.
Amid these disruptions, businesses must quickly adapt to volatile markets. Success lies in addressing uneven global demand, fostering innovation and managing risks tied to key raw materials. By prioritizing sustainability and operational efficiency, companies can stay resilient in an unpredictable landscape.
For deeper industry insights, explore the following resources:
Increasing demand for green aluminium
The green aluminium market remained steady in early 2025, with low-carbon aluminium consistently commanding higher prices than its high-carbon counterpart. However, this equilibrium shifted when the United States imposed a 25% tariff on aluminium imports from Canada and Mexico. Given that Canada supplies nearly two-thirds of the US’s aluminium, the tariff triggered a sharp rise in domestic aluminium premiums.
By March, the Fastmarkets’ aluminium P1020A premium, ddp Midwest US surged to 37.50-40.00 cents per pound, marking a 72.22% increase from December 2024. This significant price escalation has intensified challenges for US manufacturers, who already face mounting pressures to meet the rising demand for eco-friendly, low-carbon materials.
See the full article here: Aluminium-reliant industries not spared from the impact of tariffs
Aluminium recovery and market trends in 2025
The 50% aluminium tariff introduced in June 2025 disrupted the expected recovery of aluminium prices. Industries such as construction, automotive and aerospace, which depend heavily on aluminium, are now facing higher costs as metal prices climb. This adds more strain to supply chains already affected by global demand shifts.
Hopes that China’s economic recovery would help stabilize metal prices have dimmed due to the added challenges from the tariffs. Aluminium prices now depend not only on global economic trends but also on whether tariff-related costs can be managed. Businesses are debating whether to absorb these increased costs or pass them on to consumers. Despite these pressures, there is cautious hope for improvement in late 2025, depending on potential policy changes and supply chain adjustments.
Palm oil prices stabilize on production recovery and biodiesel demand
Palm oil, the world’s most widely used vegetable oil, is expanding its reach beyond food, especially in renewable energy. For 2025-26, prices are expected to stay steady, supported by a slight production recovery and strong demand for biodiesel.
Market trends will depend on factors including government policies, trade agreements and biodiesel mandates. Weather events, such as El Niño, and increasing demand for palm oil by-products in renewable energy will also impact prices and production. Stakeholders will need to stay alert to these global influences.
Find out more: Palm oil price and production outlook – Fastmarkets
Tracking the price of key raw materials for the FMCG sector
The key raw materials influencing the FMCG sector in 2025 reveal a mix of challenges and opportunities. Key commodities highlighted in this article are all heavily influenced by trade policies, geopolitical shifts and changing consumer demands. Businesses face the pressing need to manage supply chain disruptions, address sustainability demands and adapt to fluctuating markets.
By staying informed and strategically adapting to these shifts, companies can better position themselves to thrive in this complex environment. For comprehensive analyses and forecasts across a wide range of raw materials, explore our 2025 commodity market outlooks hub.
