Weather conditions impacting agriculture market: US Midwest set for rain; warm conditions persist in Europe

We recap the weather conditions across the globe and how these will effect winter and spring crop development

In the US, rain and snow in eastern Montana and western North Dakota will ease dryness, while arid conditions are expected to continue on the High Plains and the Southeast, which will support fieldwork.

In Europe, dry conditions are forecast for most of the northwest growing areas this week, which should support early season winter and spring crop development and will enable ongoing fieldwork to progress.

Our recap for the weather ahead is below.

Americas

US: Late week rain and snow in eastern Montana and western North Dakota will ease dryness in these wheat-growing areas.

Flood potential is rising in southern Manitoba, which should delay spring planting, and some farmers in southern parts of the province unable to plant until mid-May.

On the High Plains, arid conditions are expected to continue for the next two weeks, even though there may be some brief showers.

Farmland in West Texas will not receive enough precipitation to ease drought conditions during the next two weeks.

There will be net drying in the southeast over the next two weeks, which may support aggressive planting, but rain will be needed later this month and in May to support optimal crop growth.

The National Weather Service’s outlook for the upcoming week of April 25–29, predicts near- to-below-normal temperatures in most of the country, with above-normal temperatures limited to southern Atlantic states and an area stretching from southern and central California to the Four Corner States.

Meanwhile, the weather service is calling for below-normal precipitation is projected for a broad swatch of the US stretching from California to the Great Lakes, with wetter-than-normal weather expected in the northwest, and east of a line stretching from central Texas to Lake Ontario.

Brazil: Limited rainfall volumes are forecast over the coming days in the centre-west and southeast of Brazil which, coupled with high temperatures, is expected to reduce soil moisture levels in these regions.

This continues to underpin an outlook marked by a low level of restriction in terms of second corn crop (safrinha) development in Minas Gerais and parts of São Paulo, Goiás and Bahia, according to Brazil’s food agency Conab.

Rains are to remain plentiful in the south, benefitting corn and soybean crop development conditions in the region despite some slowdown in soybean harvest works.

This weather pattern marked by high temperatures and limited rainfalls in most of Brazil’s agricultural area, exception made to the south and parts of the north/northeast region, is forecast to continue into the week to May 4, according to models from the country’s meteorology institute Inmet.

Argentina: Weather forecasts remain favorable for Argentina’s crop development conditions with rains expected over parts of the centre and northeast of the agricultural area over the coming days.

The Cordoba and Buenos Aires regions are expected to receive further volumes in the next week but overall the weather is to remain mostly dry throughout the country.

Europe

NW Europe: While dry conditions are forecast for most of the region this week, the presence of a trough over the western part of Europe is set to bring isolated outbreaks of heavy rain to southern France.

In contrast, the northern parts of France along with Belgium, the Netherlands and much of Germany will remain dry with overcast cloud.

The mostly dry and mild conditions will support early season winter and spring crop development and will allow ongoing fieldwork to progress.

Black Sea: The Ukrainian sowing campaign was slowed by the presence of steady rainfall and cold temperatures which lingered over much of the country over hte past week.

Rains are forecast across the central and southeastern parts of Ukraine through to the end of this week with the daytime air temperature hovering around within 15-18 degrees above zero.

Relatively dry weather is for Western Ukraine with an average daily air temperature of 16- 18 degrees.

Asia

China: Most agricultural areas in China experienced higher-than-normal temperatures over the week, according to the National Meteorological Centre (NMC).

Precipitation this week improved in large East and South China regions, favourable to the growth of winter wheat and rapeseed.

In the next few days, windy and cool weather is expected to occur in Inner Mongolia, North and Northeast China, shortly disrupting the Spring ploughing and sowing work.

Some areas in the southwest and south are forecasted to be rainy and colder-than-average, unfavourable to the growth of spring corn and rice.

Australia: A deepening low pressure system is forecast to bring heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding to most of Queensland and parts of the Northern Territory and northeastern South Australia from today through to the start of next week.

A separate system will also bring rainfall to the east coast of New South Wales while Western Australia will see three separate bouts of rain next week.

The arrival of additional rainfall is likely to likely to further delay harvesting of early-planted summer crops.

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