World grain production forecast cut by 2 million tonnes

The International Grains Council (IGC) decreases its world grain production forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year

The International Grains Council (IGC) decreased its world grain production forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year by 2 million tonnes to 2.29 billion tonnes, which it said reflected recent dry weather.

The forecast remained above the 2022-23 marketing year when total grains production fell 39 million tonnes to 2.25 billion tonnes, with the rebound in current marketing year production driven by a projected larger corn crop.

The IGC raised their 2023-24 total grains consumption projection month-on-month by 4 million tonnes to 2.31 billion tonnes, driven by a large month-on-month increase in projected wheat consumption.

The report projects carryover stocks to fall further to 577 million tonnes from 580 million tonnes in the last report due to increased global consumption.

The grains trade projection for 2023-24 was raised unchanged from the previous update at 408 million tonnes, down 3 million tonnes year-on-year.

Corn production

The corn production forecast was cut by 6 million tonnes to 1.21 billion tonnes, marking a 58 million tonnes increase year-on-year, while the consumption estimate was also cut by 6 million tonnes to 1.2 billion tonnes.

View our corn prices.

Wheat production

The IGC raised the wheat production projection for 2023-24 by 3 million tonnes from the previous report to 786 million tonnes, a 17 million tonnes decrease from the previous year, while wheat consumption forecasts were increased by 8 million tonnes from the last forecast to 803 million tonnes.

The wheat trade projection was set at 197 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from the May report but down 6 million tonnes from last year.

In terms of oilseeds, the soybean production projection was cut by 1 million mt from the last update to 402 million tonnes.

Learn more about our wheat prices.

Soy production

The soybean consumption projection for 2023-24 was unchanged from the last report at 389 million tonnes, marking a 27 million tonnes increase from 2022-23.

Finally, the soybeans trade forecast was decreased by 1 million tonnes from the previous report to 172 million tonnes but still 4 million tonnes higher the last year’s figure.

For more information on the current grain market, take a look at our dedicated page for grain market news.

What to read next
Argentina is on track to regain its position as the largest soy meal exporter in 2023-2024, with its soybean crop  – which has nearly doubled in size – starting to be harvested, but the country faces increasing competition from Brazil and the US for global market share, Fastmarkets understands.
Vietnam is poised for a significant uplift in corn imports for the 2024-25 marketing year, driven by the resurging demand within its aquaculture and livestock sectors
The recent shift is supported by the country's increased biodiesel blending mandate and there are moves to raise it further in the coming years
As the Intercontinental Exchange launches the first RBD soybean oil futures contract, David Becker explains the advantages of having an exchange-traded derivative and how this will help protect against price volatility
Argentina's corn and sunflower crop forecasts have been downgraded due to recent weather challenges, according to the latest BAGE report
Grains and soybean Prices have been dropping amid ample offers despite lower-than-expected output in 2023-2024