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Copper is critical to the energy transition. It is already used widely in electrical cabling applications, and the greater need for wiring in electric vehicles (EVs) and in renewable electricity generation will add to consumption from other, traditional sectors.
In 2022, traditional sectors accounted for 92% of refined copper demand, with energy transition sectors, such as wind and solar power and EVs, accounting for the rest.
The Fastmarkets copper long-term forecast leverages our heritage in providing price data and market intelligence in the copper market. These insights are paired with economic modeling and data to provide market participants and investors with unmatched clarity on how the copper market will evolve in the next 10 years.
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Mitsui & Co has locked in long-term copper concentrate supply by acquiring 40% offtake rights to Argentina’s Josemaria deposit, while Fortescue has completed its acquisition of Peru’s Cañariaco project for approximately C$139 million ($101 million), marking the latest in a wave of offtake deals and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) while majors race to secure supply amid an increasingly constrained market and record-low treatment charges (TCs).
Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and Port of Sohar in Oman are becoming tactical workarounds for base metal exports blocked by the Strait of Hormuz closure, with cargo transiting via land-bridge to other Gulf states, such as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates – though capacity constraints and elevated logistics costs limit availability, sources with direct visibility of Gulf supply chains told Fastmarkets.
Lundin Mining and BHP published a preliminary economic assessment on February 16 for their Vicuña joint venture, projecting average annual copper production of 395,000 tonnes over the first 25 years of operation as Argentina’s copper concentrate pipeline continues to build. PSJ Cobre Mendocino separately confirmed on February 14 that its feasibility study was under way.
Roughly 40,000 tonnes per month of copper cathode that once flowed smoothly into the United Arab Emirates (UAE) through Jebel Ali had few options to reroute after the Strait of Hormuz officially closed on Monday March 2, with the only alternative entry points — Khor Fakkan and Fujairah — already straining under the weight of diverted cargo, market sources told Fastmarkets.
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