Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports in 2024-25 to fall by 18.2% and production to drop by 9.7%

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) estimated the 2024/25 crop of oilseeds and grains in Ukraine at 74.6 million tonnes, down by 2% from the initial forecast of 76.1 million tonnes in March

The latest estimate was a decrease of almost 9.7% from UGA’s forecast of 82.6 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds harvested in the 2023-24 season.

The UGA expected a decline in production mainly due to a reduction in the acreage under grain crops because low production costs and expensive logistics have pushed farmers to redistribute sown areas.

But the forecast was based on average weather conditions over the past five years, and any improvement or deterioration could have an effect several months later.

Corn production and export

Corn production in 2024-25 was expected at 25.5 million tonnes, down by 3% or 800,000 tonnes from the March forecast.

The 2024-25 forecast represented a decrease of 4.1 million tonnes from 2023-24, when 29.6 million tonnes of corn were harvested.

Meanwhile, corn export estimates for the 2024-25 season were unchanged from the previous forecast at 20.5 million tonnes, which is lower by 5.5 million tonnes, or 21%, than the forecast for the 2023-24 season.

“The growing corn crop in the [2024-25] season will be affected by the potential [reduction] of crop areas under corn and the dry period in the lower regions,” UGA said.

Wheat production and export

For wheat, the association said it expected production at 19.1 million tonnes in 2024-25, down by 4.5% or 900,000 tonnes from its previous estimate in March.

Wheat exports were forecast to fall by 13% compared with the 2023-24 season to 13 million tonnes, in line with the association’s forecast in March and taking into account the estimated carryover stocks of 2.4 million tonnes.

For comparison, production for the 2023-24 season was projected at 15 million tonnes and initial reserves at 4.3 million tonnes.

Barley production and export

For barley, UGA’s May forecasts were in line with March expectations: a year-on-year 20% drop in production to 4.6 million tonnes, with exports down by 500,000 tonnes to 2 million tonnes.

Sunflower seed production and export

Estimates of sunflower seed production and exports were unchanged from March.

Sunflower production in the 2024-25 season was forecast at 13.7 million tonnes, which is 3.5% lower than the expected sunflower harvest in the 2023-24 season at 14.2 million tonnes.

Sunflower seed exports were forecast at 250,000 tonnes, almost half of the 2023-24 season.

Given the UGA’s forecasts for processing in the 2024-25 season at 13.6 million tonnes and low sunflower flows at the beginning of the season, it is possible that competition for the crop will continue to be high.

Rapeseed production and export

UGA forecast rapeseed production at 4.3 million tonnes, down by 4.4% or 200,000 tonnes year on year, with export potential expected to be down by 300,000 tonnes from the 2023-24 season at 3.4 million tonnes.

Soybean production and export

Soybean production in the 2024-25 season was expected to increase by 12.2% compared with the 2023-24 season to 5.5 million tonnes, in line with the UGA forecast in March.

Soybean exports, according to UGA’s preliminary estimates, will increase by 21.2% to 4 million tonnes from 3.3 million tonnes expected in the 2023-24 season.

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