Gain valuable insights into the copper market outlook 2026, including key trends and challenges facing mines and smelters next year.

Fastmarkets invited feedback from the industry on the pricing methodology for its International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO)-audited non-ferrous metals, via an open consultation process between October 13 and November 12, 2025. This consultation was done as part of our published annual methodology review process.

As global smelting margins weaken, a quiet revival is taking shape in the United States as new copper smelting and refining projects gather momentum. Policy shifts, strategic incentives and the push for industrial resilience are driving investment that could close America’s long-standing processing gap and reshape its role in the global copper market.

Freeport’s 2026 copper concentrate contracts introduce a higher floor-cap pricing structure that redefines industry benchmarks. The negotiations highlight broader shifts in global copper supply, smelting economics and pricing frameworks.

‘Animal spirits’ are back in the copper market as supply disruptions, declining ore grades, and rising demand push prices toward $19,000–$22,000 per tonne, with long-term demand supported by electrification, defense, and global infrastructure growth.

Why copper smelters are holding strong despite tight margins and global supply pressures

Trafigura chief executive officer Richard Holtum's closing message onstage at the LME metals seminar was that processing capacity was more important than mining for national security

The consultation, which is open until November 12, 2025, seeks to ensure that our audited methodologies and price specifications continue to reflect the physical markets under indexation for alumina, aluminium, cobalt, copper, lithium, spodumene, nickel sulfate and graphite, in compliance with the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) principles for Price Reporting Agencies (PRAs). This includes […]

The copper concentrates benchmark faces historic uncertainty as market participants gather for LME Week 2025, with potential for negative treatment and refining charges and growing regional divergence shaping the next phase of copper pricing.

LME Week 2025 arrives amid supply disruptions, evolving carbon policies and tariff tensions that continue to reshape the copper, aluminium and zinc markets.